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Bundesliga
Referee: Christian Dingert
Hoffenheim
U S S S T
5–3
Full-time
M'gladbach
T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim M'gladbach
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,3
This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches
Win Ø 43%
46%
39%
Points per game
1,8
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
54%
50%
Both score Ø 55%
64%
46%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

49% Possession 51%
16 Shots 11
9 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 1
3 Offside 6
6 Free kicks against 20
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hoffenheim 3. · M'gladbach 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 28 21 5 2 +56 68
2 RB Leipzig 28 18 4 6 +21 58
3 Hoffenheim 28 13 12 3 +23 51
4 Dortmund 28 14 8 6 +27 50
5 Hertha 28 13 4 11 +3 43
6 Freiburg 28 12 5 11 -11 41
7 FC Koln 28 10 10 8 +7 40
8 M'gladbach 28 11 6 11 -2 39
9 Ein Frankfurt 28 10 8 10 -2 38
10 Schalke 04 28 10 7 11 +5 37
11 Werder Bremen 28 10 6 12 -4 36
12 Leverkusen 28 10 5 13 -2 35
13 Hamburg 28 9 6 13 -23 33
14 Wolfsburg 28 8 6 14 -15 30
15 Mainz 28 8 5 15 -11 29
16 Augsburg 28 7 8 13 -19 29
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 28 8 4 16 -16 28
18 Darmstadt 28 4 3 21 -37 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.