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Bundesliga
Referee: Manuel Gräfe
Hoffenheim
T S U S U
1–0
Full-time
Leverkusen
S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,3
3,3
Scored
2,3
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-0,3
This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 40%
42%
38%
Points per game
1,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
54%
67%
Both score Ø 69%
67%
71%
Average goals
2,9
3,2
Scored
1,9
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%
13 Shots 16
4 Shots on target 7
3 Blocked shots 4
7 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 7
0 Offside 3
12 Free kicks against 14
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hoffenheim 4. · Leverkusen 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 24 18 5 1 +47 59
2 RB Leipzig 24 15 4 5 +18 49
3 Dortmund 25 13 7 5 +27 46
4 Hoffenheim 24 10 12 2 +20 42
5 Hertha 24 12 4 8 +6 40
6 Ein Frankfurt 24 10 5 9 -1 35
7 FC Koln 24 8 10 6 +6 34
8 Freiburg 24 10 4 10 -10 34
9 M'gladbach 24 9 5 10 -3 32
10 Leverkusen 24 9 4 11 -2 31
11 Schalke 04 24 8 6 10 +4 30
12 Mainz 24 8 5 11 -7 29
13 Augsburg 24 7 7 10 -10 28
14 Wolfsburg 24 7 5 12 -12 26
15 Werder Bremen 24 7 5 12 -13 26
16 Hamburg 24 7 5 12 -22 26
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 25 5 4 16 -19 19
18 Darmstadt 24 4 3 17 -29 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hoffenheim Leverkusen
23′
🟨 Kevin Volland
Ádám Szalai 🟨
26′
Half-time 0–0
P. Schwegler 🔁
↦ J. Toljan
46′
N. Amiri 🔁
↦ Á. Szalai
58′
1–0 S. Wagner
S. Zuber
62′
71′
🔁 J. Hernández
↦ K. Volland
71′
🔁 L. Bailey
↦ J. Brandt
82′
🔁 S. Kießling
↦ J. Baumgartlinger
E. Polanski 🔁
↦ K. Demirbay
85′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Hoffenheim

3-1-4-2
1 O. Baumann G
21 B. Hübner D
4 E. Bičakčić D
15 J. Toljan D
25 N. Süle D
6 S. Rudy M
17 S. Zuber M
13 K. Demirbay M
14 S. Wagner F
28 Á. Szalai F
27 A. Kramarić F
Bench (7)
16 P. Schwegler
18 N. Amiri
8 E. Polanski
5 F. Schär
23 M. Terrazzino
30 P. Ochs
33 A. Stolz

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Leverkusen

4-4-2
1 B. Leno G
13 R. Hilbert D
6 A. Dragović D
21 Ö. Toprak D
15 J. Baumgartlinger M
38 K. Bellarabi M
44 K. Kampl M
39 B. Henrichs D
14 A. Mehmedi M
31 K. Volland F
19 J. Brandt M
Bench (7)
7 J. Hernández
9 L. Bailey
11 S. Kießling
16 T. Jedvaj
20 C. Aránguiz
28 R. Özcan
29 K. Havertz

Coach: T. Korkut

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Manuel Gräfe · 72 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
16,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.