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Championship

Referee: J Linington

Derby

U T S T S

1–0

Full-time

Peterborough

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Peterborough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,3

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,7

This season — Championship · 33/30 matches

Win Ø 24%

30%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

42%

60%

Both score Ø 48%

55%

40%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,1

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

65% Possession 35%

25 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 0

11 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 13

5 Yellow cards 6

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Derby 16. · Peterborough 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	32	20	7	5	+52	67
2	Bournemouth	31	17	8	6	+23	59
3	Blackburn	33	16	9	8	+16	57
4	Huddersfield	32	14	11	7	+9	53
5	Sheffield United	31	15	7	9	+12	52
6	West Brom	33	14	10	9	+12	52
7	Middlesbrough	31	15	7	9	+11	52
8	QPR	32	15	7	10	+9	52
9	Preston	34	13	12	9	+2	51
10	Coventry	32	14	8	10	+9	50
11	Luton	30	13	8	9	+8	47
12	Nott'm Forest	30	13	7	10	+10	46
13	Stoke	31	13	7	11	+8	46
14	Blackpool	32	12	8	12	-1	44
15	Millwall	32	11	10	11	-1	43
16	Derby	33	10	12	11	-3	42
17	Swansea	31	11	8	12	-4	41
18	Bristol City	33	11	7	15	-15	40
19	Cardiff	33	11	6	16	-8	39
20	Birmingham	34	9	10	15	-15	37
21	Hull	33	9	6	18	-11	33
22	Reading	33	9	6	18	-22	33
23	Peterborough	30	5	6	19	-37	21
24	Peterboro	31	5	6	20	-38	21
25	Barnsley	31	3	9	19	-26	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	17	11	3	3	+16	36
2	Middlesbrough	17	11	2	4	+13	35
3	Fulham	17	10	4	3	+26	34
4	West Brom	16	9	6	1	+16	33
5	Coventry	16	9	3	4	+12	30
6	Derby	16	8	6	2	+8	30
7	QPR	16	8	5	3	+10	29
8	Huddersfield	15	8	5	2	+8	29
9	Millwall	16	8	5	3	+7	29
10	Blackpool	18	9	2	7	+1	29
11	Luton	15	8	4	3	+10	28
12	Swansea	16	8	4	4	+8	28
13	Bournemouth	14	8	3	3	+14	27
14	Stoke	16	8	3	5	+8	27
15	Preston	16	6	8	2	+4	26
16	Sheffield United	14	7	3	4	+12	24
17	Nott'm Forest	16	7	3	6	+3	24
18	Birmingham	17	6	5	6	+0	23
19	Bristol City	16	6	5	5	+0	23
20	Cardiff	16	6	1	9	+1	19
21	Reading	17	5	4	8	-9	19
22	Hull	17	5	3	9	-4	18
23	Peterboro	15	4	5	6	-3	17
24	Peterborough	15	4	5	6	-3	17
25	Barnsley	15	3	4	8	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	15	10	3	2	+26	33
2	Bournemouth	17	9	5	3	+9	32
3	Sheffield United	17	8	4	5	+0	28
4	Preston	18	7	4	7	-2	25
5	Huddersfield	17	6	6	5	+1	24
6	QPR	16	7	2	7	-1	23
7	Nott'm Forest	14	6	4	4	+7	22
8	Blackburn	16	5	6	5	+0	21
9	Coventry	16	5	5	6	-3	20
10	Cardiff	17	5	5	7	-9	20
11	Stoke	15	5	4	6	+0	19
12	Luton	15	5	4	6	-2	19
13	West Brom	17	5	4	8	-4	19
14	Middlesbrough	14	4	5	5	-2	17
15	Bristol City	17	5	2	10	-15	17
16	Blackpool	14	3	6	5	-2	15
17	Hull	16	4	3	9	-7	15
18	Millwall	16	3	5	8	-8	14
19	Reading	16	4	2	10	-13	14
20	Birmingham	17	3	5	9	-15	14
21	Swansea	15	3	4	8	-12	13
22	Derby	17	2	6	9	-11	12
23	Barnsley	16	0	5	11	-18	5
24	Peterborough	15	1	1	13	-34	4
25	Peterboro	16	1	1	14	-35	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.