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Championship
Referee: David Webb
Birmingham
U U T T U
2–0
Full-time
Nott'm Forest
T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Nott'm Forest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,8
3,3
Scored
1,3
1,7
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,0
This season — Championship · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 33%
31%
34%
Points per game
1,4
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
55%
41%
Both score Ø 54%
59%
48%
Average goals
2,7
2,6
Scored
1,5
1,4
Conceded
1,2
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%
14 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 5
1 Offside 0
13 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Birmingham 12. · Nott'm Forest 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Norwich 29 15 9 5 +16 54
2 Sheffield United 29 15 6 8 +17 51
3 Leeds 27 15 6 6 +13 51
4 West Brom 27 14 7 6 +22 49
5 Middlesbrough 28 12 11 5 +11 47
6 Derby 27 13 8 6 +10 47
7 Bristol City 28 12 8 8 +6 44
8 Blackburn 29 11 10 8 -1 43
9 Nott'm Forest 29 10 12 7 +9 42
10 Aston Villa 28 10 11 7 +7 41
11 Swansea 29 11 8 10 +5 41
12 Birmingham 29 9 13 7 +7 40
13 Hull 29 11 7 11 +3 40
14 QPR 28 11 6 11 -5 39
15 Stoke 29 9 11 9 -4 38
16 Preston 30 9 10 11 +0 37
17 Sheffield Weds 28 9 8 11 -12 35
18 Brentford 28 8 10 10 +4 34
19 Millwall 28 7 8 13 -10 29
20 Wigan 29 8 5 16 -15 29
21 Rotherham 29 5 10 14 -20 25
22 Reading 29 5 9 15 -12 24
23 Bolton 29 5 8 16 -24 23
24 Ipswich 29 3 9 17 -27 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Birmingham Nott'm Forest
1–0 Jota Peleteiro
L. Jutkiewicz
13′
22′
🟨 Joe Lolley
Half-time 1–0
54′
🟨 Yohan Benalouane
60′
🔁 L. Grabban
↦ A. Milosevic
60′
🔁 Léo Bonatini
↦ D. Murphy
72′
🔁 João Carvalho
↦ A. Guédioura
I. Vassell 🔁
↦ L. Jutkiewicz
78′
Maikel Kieftenbeld 🟨
79′
K. Mrabti 🔁
↦ J. Maghoma
81′
C. Gardner 🔁
↦ Jota Peleteiro
85′
Michael Morrison 🟨
90′
90′
🟥 Yohan Benalouane
2–0 Che Adams
93′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Birmingham

4-4-2
1 L. Camp G
28 M. Morrison D
12 H. Dean D
5 M. Colin D
45 W. Harding D
6 M. Kieftenbeld M
19 J. Maghoma M
20 G. Gardner M
23 Jota Peleteiro M
9 Che Adams F
10 L. Jutkiewicz F
Bench (7)
11 I. Vassell
18 K. Mrabti
8 C. Gardner
7 C. Mahoney
25 J. Cogley
27 C. Trueman
30 B. Lubala

Coach: G. Monk

Nott'm Forest

4-1-4-1
1 C. Pantilimon G
29 Y. Benalouane D
17 A. Milosevic D
18 J. Robinson D
21 S. Janko D
8 B. Watson M
5 A. Guédioura M
11 B. Osborn M
14 M. Cash M
9 D. Murphy F
23 J. Lolley M
Bench (7)
7 L. Grabban
33 Léo Bonatini
10 João Carvalho
28 Pelé
15 L. Steele
19 Diogo Gonçalves
24 C. Yacob

Coach: M. O'Neill

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

David Webb · 53 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
18,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.