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Eredivisie
Referee: Allard Lindhout
Ajax
S S S U T
6–0
Full-time
VVV Venlo
U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax VVV Venlo
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
6,5
3,5
Scored
4,3
1,7
Conceded
2,2
1,8
Goal diff per game
+2,2
-0,2
This season — Eredivisie · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 58%
79%
37%
Points per game
2,5
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 66%
79%
53%
Both score Ø 48%
37%
58%
Average goals
4,4
2,9
Scored
3,5
1,4
Conceded
0,9
1,5
Goal diff per game
+2,5
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

68% Possession 32%
23 Shots 4
11 Shots on target 1
7 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
4 Corners 0
1 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 13
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ajax 2. · VVV Venlo 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 19 17 1 1 +53 52
2 Ajax 19 15 2 2 +48 47
3 Feyenoord 19 12 3 4 +17 39
4 AZ Alkmaar 19 9 4 6 +9 31
5 VVV Venlo 19 7 5 7 -2 26
6 Heracles 18 8 2 8 -5 26
7 Utrecht 17 7 4 6 +2 25
8 Willem II 19 7 4 8 -5 25
9 Vitesse 18 6 6 6 +1 24
10 For Sittard 19 6 5 8 -4 23
11 Heerenveen 20 5 7 8 -5 22
12 Zwolle 19 6 3 10 -9 21
13 Den Haag 19 5 6 8 -13 21
14 FC Emmen 19 5 6 8 -16 21
15 Excelsior 19 5 4 10 -21 19
16 Groningen 18 5 3 10 -4 18
17 De Graafschap 20 5 3 12 -24 18
18 NAC Breda 20 4 4 12 -22 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ajax VVV Venlo
1–0 H. Ziyech
35′
36′
🟨 Peniel Mlapa
Half-time 2–0
2–0 K. Dolberg
D. van de Beek
52′
3–0 D. Tadić
60′
D. Sinkgraven 🔁
↦ N. Tagliafico
64′
66′
🔁 D. van Bruggen
↦ J. Promes
David Neres 🔁
↦ D. Tadić
73′
73′
🔁 P. van Ooijen
↦ P. Joosten
K. Huntelaar 🔁
↦ K. Dolberg
82′
4–0 David Neres
H. Ziyech
85′
5–0 K. Huntelaar
David Neres
87′
90′
🔁 E. Korkmaz
↦ T. Sušić
6–0 D. van de Beek
David Neres
91′
Full-time 6–0

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
24 A. Onana G
17 D. Blind D
31 N. Tagliafico D
4 M. de Ligt D
2 R. Kristensen D
20 L. Schöne M
22 H. Ziyech M
6 D. van de Beek M
21 F. de Jong M
10 D. Tadić F
25 K. Dolberg F
Bench (11)
8 D. Sinkgraven
7 David Neres
9 K. Huntelaar
28 Bruno Varela
3 J. Veltman
32 V. Černý
19 Z. Labyad
26 K. Lamprou
27 P. Schuurs
30 D. de Wit
40 J. Ekkelenkamp

Coach: E. ten Hag

VVV Venlo

4-3-3
1 L. Unnerstall G
3 J. Promes D
4 R. Janssen D
13 N. Röseler D
2 M. Rutten D
6 D. Post M
31 T. Sušić M
26 P. Mlapa F
9 R. Seuntjens M
19 P. Joosten F
11 J. Grot F
Bench (12)
20 D. van Bruggen
8 P. van Ooijen
25 E. Korkmaz
14 C. Kum
29 E. Linthorst
16 D. van Crooij
35 S. Steijn
34 S. Jansson
7 M. Samuelsen
21 A. Borgmann
17 T. Dekker
22 B. Verbong

Coach: M. Steijn

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Allard Lindhout · 108 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
19,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.