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Championship

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Birmingham

S T U T T

1–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

0,3

2,0

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,7

This season — Championship · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 35%

19%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

25%

69%

Both score Ø 47%

31%

63%

Average goals

2,1

3,2

Scored

0,5

1,6

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

36% Possession 64%

15 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 12

3 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 23. · Nott'm Forest 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	17	12	0	5	+12	36
2	Wolves	16	11	2	3	+14	35
3	Cardiff	16	9	4	3	+9	31
4	Bristol City	16	8	6	2	+10	30
5	Middlesbrough	15	7	4	4	+8	25
6	Derby	15	7	4	4	+4	25
7	Ipswich	15	8	0	7	+4	24
8	Nott'm Forest	16	8	0	8	-1	24
9	Leeds	16	7	2	7	+5	23
10	Sheffield Weds	16	6	5	5	+2	23
11	Aston Villa	14	6	4	4	+6	22
12	Brentford	16	5	7	4	+4	22
13	Preston	17	5	7	5	+0	22
14	Norwich	16	6	4	6	-5	22
15	QPR	16	5	6	5	-3	21
16	Barnsley	15	5	4	6	+1	19
17	Fulham	15	4	7	4	+0	19
18	Reading	15	5	3	7	-1	18
19	Millwall	16	4	5	7	+0	17
20	Hull	16	4	4	8	-2	16
21	Burton Albion	17	3	4	10	-23	13
22	Bolton	17	2	6	9	-16	12
23	Birmingham	16	3	3	10	-17	12
24	Sunderland	16	1	7	8	-11	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	8	7	0	1	+10	21
2	Wolves	8	6	1	1	+7	19
3	Cardiff	8	5	3	0	+10	18
4	QPR	8	5	2	1	+5	17
5	Ipswich	8	5	0	3	+6	15
6	Sheffield Weds	8	4	3	1	+5	15
7	Bristol City	8	4	3	1	+5	15
8	Nott'm Forest	8	5	0	3	+4	15
9	Middlesbrough	8	4	2	2	+3	14
10	Derby	7	4	1	2	+6	13
11	Millwall	8	4	1	3	+4	13
12	Preston	9	3	4	2	+2	13
13	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+5	11
14	Aston Villa	6	3	2	1	+3	11
15	Brentford	8	2	5	1	+2	11
16	Barnsley	8	3	2	3	+1	11
17	Birmingham	8	3	2	3	-3	11
18	Hull	8	3	1	4	+7	10
19	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-2	9
20	Reading	7	2	2	3	-1	8
21	Fulham	8	1	5	2	-2	8
22	Bolton	8	2	1	5	-7	7
23	Burton Albion	9	2	1	6	-12	7
24	Sunderland	8	0	3	5	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	8	5	1	2	+7	16
2	Bristol City	8	4	3	1	+5	15
3	Sheffield United	9	5	0	4	+2	15
4	Cardiff	8	4	1	3	-1	13
5	Norwich	8	4	1	3	-3	13
6	Leeds	8	4	0	4	+0	12
7	Derby	8	3	3	2	-2	12
8	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+5	11
9	Aston Villa	8	3	2	3	+3	11
10	Brentford	8	3	2	3	+2	11
11	Fulham	7	3	2	2	+2	11
12	Reading	8	3	1	4	+0	10
13	Ipswich	7	3	0	4	-2	9
14	Preston	8	2	3	3	-2	9
15	Nott'm Forest	8	3	0	5	-5	9
16	Barnsley	7	2	2	3	+0	8
17	Sheffield Weds	8	2	2	4	-3	8
18	Sunderland	8	1	4	3	-5	7
19	Hull	8	1	3	4	-9	6
20	Burton Albion	8	1	3	4	-11	6
21	Bolton	9	0	5	4	-9	5
22	Millwall	8	0	4	4	-4	4
23	QPR	8	0	4	4	-8	4
24	Birmingham	8	0	1	7	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.