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Championship

Referee: Jeremy Simpson

Nott'm Forest

U T T U T

3–1

Full-time

Birmingham

U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

This season — Championship · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 36%

27%

45%

Points per game

1,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

82%

45%

Both score Ø 69%

82%

55%

Average goals

3,7

2,1

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 18. · Birmingham 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	11	8	1	2	+6	25
2	Norwich	11	7	2	2	+6	23
3	Newcastle	11	7	1	3	+12	22
4	Brighton	11	6	3	2	+7	21
5	Bristol City	11	6	2	3	+7	20
6	Birmingham	11	5	5	1	+5	20
7	Brentford	11	5	3	3	+9	18
8	Reading	11	5	3	3	-3	18
9	Sheffield Weds	11	5	2	4	-1	17
10	Barnsley	11	5	1	5	+5	16
11	Leeds	11	5	1	5	-1	16
12	Wolves	11	4	3	4	+1	15
13	QPR	11	4	3	4	-3	15
14	Fulham	11	3	5	3	-3	14
15	Burton Albion	11	3	4	4	+0	13
16	Ipswich	11	3	4	4	-1	13
17	Preston	11	4	1	6	-2	13
18	Nott'm Forest	11	3	3	5	-3	12
19	Aston Villa	11	1	7	3	-2	10
20	Derby	11	2	4	5	-4	10
21	Wigan	11	2	3	6	-2	9
22	Blackburn	11	2	2	7	-8	8
23	Cardiff	11	2	2	7	-11	8
24	Rotherham	11	1	3	7	-14	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	5	5	0	0	+5	15
2	Brentford	6	4	2	0	+11	14
3	Norwich	5	4	1	0	+5	13
4	Bristol City	6	4	1	1	+4	13
5	Brighton	5	4	0	1	+7	12
6	Reading	6	3	3	0	+3	12
7	Sheffield Weds	6	4	0	2	+1	12
8	Birmingham	6	3	2	1	+3	11
9	Barnsley	5	3	1	1	+6	10
10	Nott'm Forest	5	3	1	1	+3	10
11	Burton Albion	6	3	1	2	+3	10
12	Leeds	6	3	1	2	+1	10
13	Newcastle	5	3	0	2	+3	9
14	Preston	6	3	0	3	+3	9
15	Ipswich	6	2	3	1	+2	9
16	Wigan	5	2	2	1	+3	8
17	Wolves	6	2	2	2	-1	8
18	Aston Villa	5	1	4	0	+3	7
19	Rotherham	6	1	3	2	-1	6
20	Fulham	6	1	2	3	-5	5
21	QPR	5	1	2	2	-5	5
22	Blackburn	5	1	1	3	-3	4
23	Cardiff	5	1	0	4	-6	3
24	Derby	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	6	4	1	1	+9	13
2	QPR	6	3	1	2	+2	10
3	Norwich	6	3	1	2	+1	10
4	Huddersfield	6	3	1	2	+1	10
5	Birmingham	5	2	3	0	+2	9
6	Fulham	5	2	3	0	+2	9
7	Brighton	6	2	3	1	+0	9
8	Derby	6	2	2	2	+0	8
9	Bristol City	5	2	1	2	+3	7
10	Wolves	5	2	1	2	+2	7
11	Barnsley	6	2	0	4	-1	6
12	Leeds	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Reading	5	2	0	3	-6	6
14	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Cardiff	6	1	2	3	-5	5
16	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Ipswich	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Blackburn	6	1	1	4	-5	4
19	Preston	5	1	1	3	-5	4
20	Burton Albion	5	0	3	2	-3	3
21	Aston Villa	6	0	3	3	-5	3
22	Nott'm Forest	6	0	2	4	-6	2
23	Wigan	6	0	1	5	-5	1
24	Rotherham	5	0	0	5	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.