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Championship

Referee: Paul Tierney

Reading

T T S T T

3–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

This season — Championship · 13/14 matches

Win Ø 37%

23%

50%

Points per game

0,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

31%

64%

Both score Ø 59%

54%

64%

Average goals

2,1

3,1

Scored

0,8

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

11 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Reading 20. · Nott'm Forest 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	15	10	2	3	+12	32
2	Cardiff	15	9	4	2	+10	31
3	Sheffield United	15	10	0	5	+7	30
4	Bristol City	15	7	6	2	+9	27
5	Derby	14	7	4	3	+6	25
6	Leeds	15	7	2	6	+7	23
7	Middlesbrough	14	6	4	4	+7	22
8	Norwich	15	6	4	5	-4	22
9	Preston	14	5	6	3	+5	21
10	Ipswich	14	7	0	7	+1	21
11	QPR	15	5	6	4	+1	21
12	Nott'm Forest	14	7	0	7	-3	21
13	Sheffield Weds	15	5	5	5	+1	20
14	Aston Villa	12	5	4	3	+5	19
15	Fulham	14	4	7	3	+2	19
16	Millwall	15	4	5	6	+1	17
17	Hull	15	4	4	7	+1	16
18	Brentford	14	3	7	4	+0	16
19	Barnsley	14	4	4	6	-1	16
20	Reading	13	3	3	7	-5	12
21	Birmingham	14	3	3	8	-13	12
22	Sunderland	15	1	7	7	-10	10
23	Burton Albion	15	2	4	9	-22	10
24	Bolton	15	1	5	9	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	8	5	3	0	+10	18
2	Sheffield United	7	6	0	1	+7	18
3	QPR	8	5	2	1	+5	17
4	Wolves	7	5	1	1	+5	16
5	Sheffield Weds	8	4	3	1	+5	15
6	Derby	6	4	1	1	+8	13
7	Millwall	7	4	1	2	+5	13
8	Preston	7	3	3	1	+4	12
9	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+4	12
10	Ipswich	7	4	0	3	+3	12
11	Nott'm Forest	7	4	0	3	+0	12
12	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+5	11
13	Aston Villa	5	3	2	0	+4	11
14	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+2	11
15	Birmingham	7	3	2	2	-1	11
16	Hull	8	3	1	4	+7	10
17	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-2	9
18	Brentford	7	1	5	1	+0	8
19	Barnsley	7	2	2	3	-1	8
20	Fulham	8	1	5	2	-2	8
21	Burton Albion	8	2	1	5	-10	7
22	Reading	6	1	2	3	-3	5
23	Bolton	7	1	1	5	-8	4
24	Sunderland	8	0	3	5	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	8	5	1	2	+7	16
2	Bristol City	8	4	3	1	+5	15
3	Cardiff	7	4	1	2	+0	13
4	Norwich	7	4	1	2	-2	13
5	Leeds	7	4	0	3	+2	12
6	Sheffield United	8	4	0	4	+0	12
7	Derby	8	3	3	2	-2	12
8	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+5	11
9	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
10	Preston	7	2	3	2	+1	9
11	Ipswich	7	3	0	4	-2	9
12	Nott'm Forest	7	3	0	4	-3	9
13	Aston Villa	7	2	2	3	+1	8
14	Barnsley	7	2	2	3	+0	8
15	Brentford	7	2	2	3	+0	8
16	Reading	7	2	1	4	-2	7
17	Sunderland	7	1	4	2	-4	7
18	Hull	7	1	3	3	-6	6
19	Sheffield Weds	7	1	2	4	-4	5
20	QPR	7	0	4	3	-4	4
21	Millwall	8	0	4	4	-4	4
22	Bolton	8	0	4	4	-9	4
23	Burton Albion	7	0	3	4	-12	3
24	Birmingham	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.