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Championship

Referee: James Linington

Cardiff

U T U S S

0–0

Full-time

Derby

T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Championship · 10/9 matches

Win Ø 52%

70%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

60%

44%

Both score Ø 64%

60%

67%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,7

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%

14 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 1. · Derby 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	10	7	2	1	+8	23
2	Sheffield United	10	7	0	3	+6	21
3	Leeds	10	6	2	2	+10	20
4	Wolves	10	6	2	2	+4	20
5	Preston	10	5	4	1	+7	19
6	Ipswich	9	6	0	3	+6	18
7	Bristol City	10	4	5	1	+7	17
8	Fulham	11	4	5	2	+4	17
9	Aston Villa	9	4	3	2	+6	15
10	Norwich	10	4	3	3	-3	15
11	Middlesbrough	9	4	2	3	+4	14
12	Millwall	10	3	4	3	+3	13
13	Sheffield Weds	10	3	4	3	+0	13
14	QPR	11	3	4	4	-1	13
15	Derby	9	3	3	3	+0	12
16	Nott'm Forest	10	4	0	6	-5	12
17	Hull	10	2	3	5	-2	9
18	Reading	9	2	3	4	-2	9
19	Burton Albion	10	2	3	5	-13	9
20	Brentford	10	1	5	4	-2	8
21	Barnsley	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Birmingham	10	2	2	6	-7	8
23	Sunderland	10	1	3	6	-9	6
24	Bolton	10	0	2	8	-17	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Ipswich	5	4	0	1	+6	12
3	Sheffield United	5	4	0	1	+5	12
4	Leeds	5	3	2	0	+8	11
5	Bristol City	5	3	2	0	+7	11
6	Preston	5	3	2	0	+5	11
7	QPR	6	3	2	1	+3	11
8	Millwall	5	3	1	1	+5	10
9	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	+3	10
10	Wolves	5	3	1	1	+2	10
11	Aston Villa	4	2	2	0	+3	8
12	Sheffield Weds	5	2	2	1	+1	8
13	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
14	Hull	5	2	1	2	+5	7
15	Derby	4	2	1	1	+4	7
16	Barnsley	5	2	1	2	+0	7
17	Birmingham	5	2	1	2	-2	7
18	Burton Albion	5	2	1	2	-3	7
19	Fulham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
20	Nott'm Forest	5	2	0	3	-3	6
21	Reading	4	1	2	1	+0	5
22	Brentford	5	0	4	1	-1	4
23	Sunderland	5	0	1	4	-5	1
24	Bolton	5	0	0	5	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
2	Wolves	5	3	1	1	+2	10
3	Cardiff	5	3	1	1	+0	10
4	Leeds	5	3	0	2	+2	9
5	Sheffield United	5	3	0	2	+1	9
6	Preston	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	+3	7
8	Norwich	5	2	1	2	-4	7
9	Ipswich	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Bristol City	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Nott'm Forest	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Sunderland	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Derby	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Middlesbrough	4	1	1	2	+1	4
16	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-1	4
17	Reading	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Millwall	5	0	3	2	-2	3
19	QPR	5	0	2	3	-4	2
20	Hull	5	0	2	3	-7	2
21	Bolton	5	0	2	3	-8	2
22	Burton Albion	5	0	2	3	-10	2
23	Barnsley	4	0	1	3	-4	1
24	Birmingham	5	0	1	4	-5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.