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Championship

Referee: Keith Stroud

Derby

S T S T U

1–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

This season — Championship · 36/37 matches

Win Ø 36%

42%

30%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

39%

30%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

49%

Average goals

2,3

1,9

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

10 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 5. · Nott'm Forest 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	37	21	11	5	+30	74
2	Middlesbrough	37	21	7	9	+25	70
3	Brighton	35	18	12	5	+16	66
4	Hull	35	19	8	8	+29	65
5	Derby	36	15	13	8	+13	58
6	Cardiff	37	15	13	9	+8	58
7	Ipswich	37	16	10	11	+3	58
8	Sheffield Weds	34	15	11	8	+17	56
9	Birmingham	36	15	10	11	+6	55
10	Preston	37	13	13	11	+1	52
11	QPR	37	12	14	11	+4	50
12	Wolves	37	12	11	14	-5	47
13	Leeds	36	11	14	11	-5	47
14	Nott'm Forest	37	11	13	13	-1	46
15	Reading	36	11	11	14	-1	44
16	Blackburn	37	10	13	14	+0	43
17	Brentford	36	12	7	17	-10	43
18	Huddersfield	37	11	9	17	-4	42
19	Bristol City	37	10	10	17	-24	40
20	Fulham	37	8	13	16	-7	37
21	Milton Keynes Dons	37	9	10	18	-18	37
22	Rotherham	37	10	6	21	-19	36
23	Charlton	37	7	11	19	-32	32
24	Bolton	37	4	14	19	-26	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	18	13	3	2	+22	42
2	Middlesbrough	18	13	3	2	+21	42
3	Brighton	18	13	2	3	+13	41
4	Hull	16	11	5	0	+26	38
5	Cardiff	19	10	7	2	+11	37
6	Sheffield Weds	17	10	5	2	+18	35
7	Derby	18	9	6	3	+14	33
8	QPR	19	8	8	3	+11	32
9	Ipswich	18	8	6	4	+6	30
10	Reading	18	7	8	3	+8	29
11	Birmingham	17	9	2	6	+3	29
12	Blackburn	19	7	7	5	+7	28
13	Preston	18	7	7	4	+2	28
14	Nott'm Forest	19	7	6	6	+3	27
15	Huddersfield	19	7	4	8	+5	25
16	Wolves	19	6	7	6	-1	25
17	Rotherham	19	7	4	8	-3	25
18	Brentford	18	7	3	8	-2	24
19	Milton Keynes Dons	18	7	3	8	-6	24
20	Bolton	19	4	10	5	-1	22
21	Leeds	18	5	7	6	-3	22
22	Fulham	19	5	5	9	-1	20
23	Charlton	19	4	8	7	-7	20
24	Bristol City	18	4	6	8	-12	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	19	8	8	3	+8	32
2	Middlesbrough	19	8	4	7	+4	28
3	Ipswich	19	8	4	7	-3	28
4	Hull	19	8	3	8	+3	27
5	Birmingham	19	6	8	5	+3	26
6	Brighton	17	5	10	2	+3	25
7	Derby	18	6	7	5	-1	25
8	Leeds	18	6	7	5	-2	25
9	Preston	19	6	6	7	-1	24
10	Wolves	18	6	4	8	-4	22
11	Bristol City	19	6	4	9	-12	22
12	Sheffield Weds	17	5	6	6	-1	21
13	Cardiff	18	5	6	7	-3	21
14	Nott'm Forest	18	4	7	7	-4	19
15	Brentford	18	5	4	9	-8	19
16	QPR	18	4	6	8	-7	18
17	Fulham	18	3	8	7	-6	17
18	Huddersfield	18	4	5	9	-9	17
19	Blackburn	18	3	6	9	-7	15
20	Reading	18	4	3	11	-9	15
21	Milton Keynes Dons	19	2	7	10	-12	13
22	Charlton	18	3	3	12	-25	12
23	Rotherham	18	3	2	13	-16	11
24	Bolton	18	0	4	14	-25	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.