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Championship

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Derby

S S S S S

3–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,5

This season — Championship · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 40%

42%

37%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

16%

74%

Both score Ø 50%

21%

79%

Average goals

1,6

3,5

Scored

0,9

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

18 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 8. · Nott'm Forest 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	20	14	1	5	+25	43
2	Brighton	20	12	6	2	+19	42
3	Reading	19	11	4	4	+7	37
4	Huddersfield	19	10	3	6	-1	33
5	Leeds	20	10	2	8	+1	32
6	Birmingham	20	8	7	5	-2	31
7	Norwich	20	9	3	8	+3	30
8	Derby	19	8	5	6	+4	29
9	Barnsley	20	8	4	8	+4	28
10	Preston	20	8	4	8	+2	28
11	Aston Villa	20	6	10	4	+2	28
12	Sheffield Weds	19	8	4	7	-1	28
13	Bristol City	20	8	3	9	+3	27
14	Fulham	19	6	8	5	+4	26
15	Nott'm Forest	19	7	4	8	+1	25
16	Brentford	20	7	4	9	-1	25
17	Ipswich	20	6	7	7	-2	25
18	QPR	20	6	5	9	-9	23
19	Wolves	20	5	7	8	-3	22
20	Burton Albion	20	5	7	8	-5	22
21	Blackburn	20	5	5	10	-8	20
22	Cardiff	20	5	5	10	-12	20
23	Wigan	20	4	6	10	-6	18
24	Rotherham	20	2	4	14	-25	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	11	8	2	1	+16	26
2	Reading	11	7	3	1	+9	24
3	Huddersfield	9	7	1	1	+6	22
4	Newcastle	10	7	0	3	+12	21
5	Aston Villa	10	5	5	0	+8	20
6	Norwich	9	6	1	2	+10	19
7	Bristol City	9	6	1	2	+5	19
8	Birmingham	10	5	3	2	+3	18
9	Sheffield Weds	9	6	0	3	+2	18
10	Brentford	10	5	2	3	+7	17
11	Burton Albion	9	5	2	2	+6	17
12	Nott'm Forest	9	5	2	2	+5	17
13	Preston	11	5	2	4	+5	17
14	Ipswich	11	4	5	2	+5	17
15	Leeds	10	5	2	3	+3	17
16	Derby	10	4	3	3	+3	15
17	Barnsley	11	4	3	4	+0	15
18	Blackburn	10	3	4	3	-1	13
19	QPR	10	3	3	4	-6	12
20	Cardiff	10	3	2	5	-5	11
21	Fulham	9	2	4	3	+0	10
22	Wigan	9	2	3	4	-2	9
23	Rotherham	10	2	3	5	-4	9
24	Wolves	10	2	3	5	-5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	10	7	1	2	+13	22
2	Fulham	10	4	4	2	+4	16
3	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+3	16
4	Leeds	10	5	0	5	-2	15
5	Derby	9	4	2	3	+1	14
6	Barnsley	9	4	1	4	+4	13
7	Wolves	10	3	4	3	+2	13
8	Reading	8	4	1	3	-2	13
9	Birmingham	10	3	4	3	-5	13
10	Preston	9	3	2	4	-3	11
11	QPR	10	3	2	5	-3	11
12	Norwich	11	3	2	6	-7	11
13	Huddersfield	10	3	2	5	-7	11
14	Sheffield Weds	10	2	4	4	-3	10
15	Wigan	11	2	3	6	-4	9
16	Cardiff	10	2	3	5	-7	9
17	Bristol City	11	2	2	7	-2	8
18	Nott'm Forest	10	2	2	6	-4	8
19	Aston Villa	10	1	5	4	-6	8
20	Ipswich	9	2	2	5	-7	8
21	Brentford	10	2	2	6	-8	8
22	Blackburn	10	2	1	7	-7	7
23	Burton Albion	11	0	5	6	-11	5
24	Rotherham	10	0	1	9	-21	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.