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Premier League

Referee: Roger East

Watford

U T T U T

2–1

Full-time

Newcastle

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 36/35 matches

Win Ø 30%

28%

31%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

56%

40%

Both score Ø 45%

47%

43%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

39% Possession 61%

11 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

2 Corners 5

5 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 14. · Newcastle 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	35	30	3	2	+76	93
2	Man United	36	24	5	7	+39	77
3	Liverpool	36	20	12	4	+43	72
4	Tottenham	35	21	8	6	+37	71
5	Chelsea	35	20	6	9	+26	66
6	Arsenal	35	17	6	12	+19	57
7	Burnley	36	14	12	10	+3	54
8	Everton	36	13	9	14	-12	48
9	Leicester	35	11	11	13	-3	44
10	Newcastle	35	11	8	16	-9	41
11	Crystal Palace	37	10	11	16	-12	41
12	Brighton	36	9	13	14	-14	40
13	Bournemouth	36	9	11	16	-18	38
14	Watford	36	10	8	18	-20	38
15	West Ham	35	8	11	16	-24	35
16	Huddersfield	35	9	8	18	-29	35
17	Swansea	35	8	9	18	-25	33
18	Southampton	35	6	14	15	-19	32
19	Stoke	37	6	12	19	-34	30
20	West Brom	36	5	13	18	-24	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	15	1	1	+45	46
2	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+29	44
3	Man United	18	14	2	2	+28	44
4	Liverpool	18	11	7	0	+31	40
5	Tottenham	17	11	4	2	+22	37
6	Chelsea	17	10	3	4	+13	33
7	Everton	18	10	3	5	+6	33
8	Brighton	19	7	8	4	-1	29
9	Burnley	18	7	5	6	+0	26
10	Newcastle	18	7	4	7	+1	25
11	Leicester	17	6	6	5	+3	24
12	Watford	18	6	6	6	-5	24
13	Crystal Palace	18	6	5	7	+0	23
14	West Ham	17	6	5	6	-4	23
15	Bournemouth	18	6	5	7	-5	23
16	Huddersfield	18	6	5	7	-8	23
17	Swansea	17	6	3	8	-5	21
18	Stoke	19	5	5	9	-10	20
19	Southampton	18	4	7	7	-5	19
20	West Brom	18	2	9	7	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	15	2	1	+31	47
2	Tottenham	18	10	4	4	+15	34
3	Chelsea	18	10	3	5	+13	33
4	Man United	18	10	3	5	+11	33
5	Liverpool	18	9	5	4	+12	32
6	Burnley	18	7	7	4	+3	28
7	Leicester	18	5	5	8	-6	20
8	Crystal Palace	19	4	6	9	-12	18
9	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-10	16
10	Bournemouth	18	3	6	9	-13	15
11	Everton	18	3	6	9	-18	15
12	Watford	18	4	2	12	-15	14
13	Arsenal	17	3	4	10	-10	13
14	Southampton	17	2	7	8	-14	13
15	West Brom	18	3	4	11	-15	13
16	West Ham	18	2	6	10	-20	12
17	Swansea	18	2	6	10	-20	12
18	Huddersfield	17	3	3	11	-21	12
19	Brighton	17	2	5	10	-13	11
20	Stoke	18	1	7	10	-24	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.