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Premier League

Referee: Lee Probert

Burnley

S S T S T

1–0

Full-time

Watford

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,5

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 44%

47%

40%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

20%

60%

Both score Ø 43%

33%

53%

Average goals

1,7

3,4

Scored

0,9

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

8 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 5

6 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Burnley 7. · Watford 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	14	1	0	+36	43
2	Man United	15	11	2	2	+26	35
3	Chelsea	16	10	2	4	+15	32
4	Liverpool	15	8	5	2	+14	29
5	Arsenal	15	9	1	5	+10	28
6	Tottenham	15	7	4	4	+10	25
7	Burnley	15	7	4	4	+2	25
8	Watford	15	6	4	5	-1	22
9	Leicester	15	5	5	5	+0	20
10	Everton	15	5	3	7	-9	18
11	Southampton	15	4	5	6	-3	17
12	Brighton	15	4	5	6	-5	17
13	Stoke	15	4	4	7	-12	16
14	Bournemouth	15	4	3	8	-4	15
15	Newcastle	15	4	3	8	-8	15
16	Huddersfield	15	4	3	8	-17	15
17	West Brom	15	2	7	6	-9	13
18	West Ham	16	3	4	9	-18	13
19	Crystal Palace	15	2	4	9	-17	10
20	Swansea	15	2	3	10	-10	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	1	0	+22	22
2	Man United	7	7	0	0	+19	21
3	Arsenal	8	7	0	1	+14	21
4	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+6	16
5	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+11	15
6	Everton	8	5	0	3	+2	15
7	Leicester	8	4	1	3	+2	13
8	Tottenham	7	3	3	1	+4	12
9	Burnley	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Southampton	8	3	2	3	+1	11
11	Huddersfield	7	3	2	2	-2	11
12	Stoke	8	3	2	3	-5	11
13	Newcastle	7	3	1	3	-1	10
14	Brighton	8	2	4	2	-3	10
15	West Ham	7	3	1	3	-3	10
16	Watford	8	2	3	3	-6	9
17	Bournemouth	8	2	2	4	+0	8
18	Crystal Palace	7	2	2	3	-4	8
19	West Brom	8	1	5	2	-4	8
20	Swansea	7	1	1	5	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	7	0	0	+14	21
2	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+9	16
3	Man United	8	4	2	2	+7	14
4	Liverpool	8	4	2	2	+3	14
5	Burnley	8	4	2	2	+0	14
6	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+6	13
7	Watford	7	4	1	2	+5	13
8	Leicester	7	1	4	2	-2	7
9	Brighton	7	2	1	4	-2	7
10	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-4	7
11	Bournemouth	7	2	1	4	-4	7
12	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	6
13	Swansea	8	1	2	5	-4	5
14	West Brom	7	1	2	4	-5	5
15	Stoke	7	1	2	4	-7	5
16	Newcastle	8	1	2	5	-7	5
17	Huddersfield	8	1	1	6	-15	4
18	Everton	7	0	3	4	-11	3
19	West Ham	9	0	3	6	-15	3
20	Crystal Palace	8	0	2	6	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.