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Championship

Referee: Andy Madley

Derby

S S T T T

3–1

Full-time

Cardiff

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

This season — Championship · 41/43 matches

Win Ø 52%

44%

60%

Points per game

1,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

46%

44%

Both score Ø 46%

44%

47%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

55% Possession 45%

17 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 6

10 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 8. · Cardiff 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	44	30	8	6	+46	98
2	Cardiff	43	26	8	9	+30	86
3	Fulham	41	23	12	6	+34	81
4	Aston Villa	41	22	9	10	+29	75
5	Middlesbrough	42	21	8	13	+21	71
6	Millwall	44	18	15	11	+12	69
7	Brentford	44	18	14	12	+12	68
8	Derby	41	18	13	10	+18	67
9	Preston	44	17	16	11	+9	67
10	Bristol City	44	17	15	12	+10	66
11	Sheffield United	44	19	9	16	+7	66
12	Leeds	44	16	9	19	-6	57
13	Norwich	44	14	15	15	-8	57
14	Ipswich	44	16	8	20	-7	56
15	Sheffield Weds	44	13	14	17	-5	53
16	QPR	44	14	11	19	-12	53
17	Nott'm Forest	43	14	7	22	-16	49
18	Hull	44	11	15	18	+2	48
19	Reading	44	10	13	21	-18	43
20	Birmingham	44	12	7	25	-30	43
21	Bolton	44	9	13	22	-34	40
22	Barnsley	43	8	14	21	-20	38
23	Burton Albion	44	9	11	24	-44	38
24	Sunderland	44	6	16	22	-30	34

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	22	16	4	2	+29	52
2	Cardiff	22	16	3	3	+24	51
3	Aston Villa	20	13	5	2	+22	44
4	Fulham	21	12	7	2	+22	43
5	Middlesbrough	21	13	3	5	+15	42
6	Sheffield United	22	12	5	5	+14	41
7	Millwall	22	11	7	4	+11	40
8	Bristol City	22	11	6	5	+14	39
9	QPR	22	11	5	6	+5	38
10	Brentford	22	9	10	3	+13	37
11	Derby	20	10	5	5	+15	35
12	Leeds	22	9	6	7	+3	33
13	Preston	22	8	8	6	+4	32
14	Ipswich	22	9	5	8	+2	32
15	Birmingham	22	9	3	10	-5	30
16	Hull	22	7	8	7	+11	29
17	Norwich	22	7	8	7	-1	29
18	Nott'm Forest	21	9	2	10	-5	29
19	Sheffield Weds	22	7	7	8	+2	28
20	Bolton	22	8	4	10	-9	28
21	Reading	22	5	8	9	-6	23
22	Barnsley	22	4	9	9	-9	21
23	Burton Albion	22	3	5	14	-26	14
24	Sunderland	22	2	7	13	-19	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	22	14	4	4	+17	46
2	Fulham	20	11	5	4	+12	38
3	Cardiff	21	10	5	6	+6	35
4	Preston	22	9	8	5	+5	35
5	Derby	21	8	8	5	+3	32
6	Aston Villa	21	9	4	8	+7	31
7	Brentford	22	9	4	9	-1	31
8	Middlesbrough	21	8	5	8	+6	29
9	Millwall	22	7	8	7	+1	29
10	Norwich	22	7	7	8	-7	28
11	Bristol City	22	6	9	7	-4	27
12	Sheffield United	22	7	4	11	-7	25
13	Sheffield Weds	22	6	7	9	-7	25
14	Leeds	22	7	3	12	-9	24
15	Ipswich	22	7	3	12	-9	24
16	Burton Albion	22	6	6	10	-18	24
17	Sunderland	22	4	9	9	-11	21
18	Nott'm Forest	22	5	5	12	-11	20
19	Reading	22	5	5	12	-12	20
20	Hull	22	4	7	11	-9	19
21	Barnsley	21	4	5	12	-11	17
22	QPR	22	3	6	13	-17	15
23	Birmingham	22	3	4	15	-25	13
24	Bolton	22	1	9	12	-25	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.