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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Newcastle

T U T T S

1–1

Full-time

Man City

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,8

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 38%

21%

55%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

55%

67%

Both score Ø 47%

48%

45%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

43% Possession 57%

5 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 19. · Man City 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	34	21	10	3	+26	73
2	Tottenham	34	19	11	4	+39	68
3	Man City	33	18	6	9	+28	60
4	Arsenal	33	17	9	7	+22	60
5	Man United	33	16	8	9	+10	56
6	West Ham	33	13	14	6	+12	53
7	Southampton	34	14	9	11	+10	51
8	Liverpool	32	14	9	9	+9	51
9	Stoke	34	13	8	13	-10	47
10	Chelsea	33	11	11	11	+4	44
11	Everton	33	9	14	10	+9	41
12	Watford	33	11	8	14	-5	41
13	Bournemouth	34	11	8	15	-16	41
14	West Brom	33	10	10	13	-9	40
15	Swansea	34	10	10	14	-11	40
16	Crystal Palace	34	10	9	15	-7	39
17	Norwich	34	8	7	19	-25	31
18	Sunderland	33	7	9	17	-18	30
19	Newcastle	33	7	7	19	-26	28
20	Aston Villa	34	3	7	24	-42	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	17	10	6	1	+11	36
2	Tottenham	17	10	5	2	+21	35
3	Man City	17	11	1	5	+22	34
4	Man United	16	10	4	2	+14	34
5	Arsenal	16	9	4	3	+13	31
6	Southampton	17	9	3	5	+12	30
7	West Ham	16	7	7	2	+8	28
8	Swansea	17	7	5	5	-2	26
9	Liverpool	15	6	6	3	+5	24
10	Stoke	17	7	3	7	-3	24
11	Chelsea	17	5	7	5	+2	22
12	West Brom	17	6	4	7	-3	22
13	Newcastle	16	5	6	5	+3	21
14	Watford	17	5	5	7	+0	20
15	Norwich	17	5	5	7	-5	20
16	Bournemouth	17	5	4	8	-8	19
17	Crystal Palace	18	5	3	10	-5	18
18	Everton	17	4	5	8	+1	17
19	Sunderland	16	4	5	7	-1	17
20	Aston Villa	17	2	4	11	-19	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	17	11	4	2	+15	37
2	Tottenham	17	9	6	2	+18	33
3	Arsenal	17	8	5	4	+9	29
4	Liverpool	17	8	3	6	+4	27
5	Man City	16	7	5	4	+6	26
6	West Ham	17	6	7	4	+4	25
7	Everton	16	5	9	2	+8	24
8	Stoke	17	6	5	6	-7	23
9	Chelsea	16	6	4	6	+2	22
10	Man United	17	6	4	7	-4	22
11	Bournemouth	17	6	4	7	-8	22
12	Crystal Palace	16	5	6	5	-2	21
13	Southampton	17	5	6	6	-2	21
14	Watford	16	6	3	7	-5	21
15	West Brom	16	4	6	6	-6	18
16	Swansea	17	3	5	9	-9	14
17	Sunderland	17	3	4	10	-17	13
18	Norwich	17	3	2	12	-20	11
19	Newcastle	17	2	1	14	-29	7
20	Aston Villa	17	1	3	13	-23	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.