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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Liverpool

T U S U U

1–1

Full-time

Southampton

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

33%

78%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,9

1,7

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

15 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

10 Corners 7

4 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Liverpool 13. · Southampton 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	7	1	2	+16	22
2	Arsenal	10	7	1	2	+10	22
3	West Ham	10	6	2	2	+9	20
4	Man United	10	6	2	2	+7	20
5	Leicester	10	5	4	1	+3	19
6	Tottenham	10	4	5	1	+8	17
7	Crystal Palace	10	5	0	5	+1	15
8	West Brom	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Southampton	9	3	4	2	+3	13
10	Everton	10	3	4	3	+0	13
11	Swansea	10	3	4	3	+0	13
12	Watford	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	Liverpool	9	3	4	2	-2	13
14	Stoke	10	3	3	4	-3	12
15	Chelsea	10	3	2	5	-4	11
16	Norwich	10	2	3	5	-7	9
17	Bournemouth	10	2	2	6	-10	8
18	Sunderland	10	1	3	6	-8	6
19	Newcastle	10	1	3	6	-10	6
20	Aston Villa	10	1	1	8	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	4	0	1	+13	12
2	Man United	5	3	2	0	+6	11
3	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	Leicester	5	3	1	1	+1	10
5	Tottenham	5	2	3	0	+4	9
6	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Southampton	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	-1	7
11	Crystal Palace	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Newcastle	5	1	2	2	+2	5
13	Sunderland	5	1	2	2	+0	5
14	Everton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Watford	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Norwich	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	West Brom	5	1	1	3	-4	4
20	Aston Villa	5	0	1	4	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Ham	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	+6	12
3	Man City	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+1	10
5	Leicester	5	2	3	0	+2	9
6	Crystal Palace	5	3	0	2	+2	9
7	Man United	5	3	0	2	+1	9
8	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+4	8
9	Everton	5	2	2	1	+3	8
10	Watford	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	Stoke	5	2	2	1	+0	8
12	Southampton	4	1	3	0	+2	6
13	Liverpool	5	1	3	1	-1	6
14	Swansea	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Norwich	5	1	2	2	-5	5
16	Chelsea	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Bournemouth	5	1	0	4	-7	3
19	Sunderland	5	0	1	4	-8	1
20	Newcastle	5	0	1	4	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.