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Premier League

Referee: Robert Madley

Watford

U T S S T

1–2

Full-time

Man United

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 46%

33%

58%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 29%

33%

25%

Average goals

1,9

2,1

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

43% Possession 57%

10 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 10

1 Offside 5

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 11. · Man United 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	8	2	2	+17	26
2	Arsenal	12	8	2	2	+13	26
3	Leicester	12	7	4	1	+5	25
4	Man United	12	7	3	2	+9	24
5	Tottenham	12	5	6	1	+10	21
6	West Ham	12	6	3	3	+7	21
7	Southampton	12	5	5	2	+6	20
8	Crystal Palace	12	6	1	5	+2	19
9	Everton	12	4	5	3	+4	17
10	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	-1	17
11	Watford	12	4	4	4	-1	16
12	Stoke	12	4	4	4	-2	16
13	West Brom	12	4	2	6	-6	14
14	Swansea	12	3	4	5	-4	13
15	Norwich	12	3	3	6	-7	12
16	Chelsea	12	3	2	7	-7	11
17	Newcastle	12	2	4	6	-9	10
18	Bournemouth	12	2	2	8	-13	8
19	Sunderland	12	1	3	8	-13	6
20	Aston Villa	12	1	2	9	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	5	0	1	+14	15
2	Man United	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Leicester	6	4	1	1	+2	13
4	Tottenham	6	3	3	0	+6	12
5	Arsenal	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Southampton	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	Everton	6	2	2	2	+1	8
8	West Ham	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Swansea	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Watford	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Liverpool	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Chelsea	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Norwich	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	Newcastle	6	1	3	2	+2	6
17	Sunderland	6	1	2	3	-1	5
18	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-4	5
19	West Brom	6	1	1	4	-5	4
20	Aston Villa	6	0	2	4	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	+9	15
2	West Ham	6	4	1	1	+6	13
3	Leicester	6	3	3	0	+3	12
4	Crystal Palace	6	4	0	2	+3	12
5	Man City	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	Southampton	6	2	4	0	+3	10
7	Man United	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	West Brom	6	3	1	2	-1	10
9	Tottenham	6	2	3	1	+4	9
10	Everton	6	2	3	1	+3	9
11	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	+1	9
12	Stoke	6	2	3	1	+0	9
13	Watford	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Norwich	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Chelsea	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Newcastle	6	1	1	4	-11	4
18	Aston Villa	6	1	0	5	-6	3
19	Bournemouth	6	1	0	5	-9	3
20	Sunderland	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.