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Europa League
Referee: H Feșnic
FC Astana
T U S T T
2–1
Full-time
Ludogorets
T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Astana Ludogorets
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
0,5
1,3
Conceded
2,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-1,8
+0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

12 Shots 12
8 Shots on target 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 6
5 Corners 7
3 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

FC Astana Ludogorets
34′
⚽ N. Sonko-Sundberg 0–1
K. Despodov
1–1 Ž. Tomašević ⚽
S. Lončar
40′
Half-time 1–1
Stjepan Lončar 🟨
47′
47′
🟨 Claude Gonçalves
2–1 A. Marochkin ⚽
K. Hovhannisyan
53′
57′
🔁 I. Yordanov
↦ Claude Gonçalves
57′
🔁 D. Yankov
↦ K. Despodov
M. Tomasov 🔁
↦ A. Aymbetov
61′
T. Dosmagambetov 🔁
↦ F. Ourega
61′
Abzal Beysebekov 🟨
66′
66′
🔁 Caio Vidal
↦ B. Tekpetey
D. Jovančić 🔁
↦ M. Ebong
75′
78′
🔁 S. Delev
↦ M. Heister
78′
🔁 Pedro Naressi
↦ J. Piotrowski
E. Astanov 🔁
↦ D. Darboe
84′
86′
🟨 Olivier Verdon
Žarko Tomašević 🟨
93′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

FC Astana

3-4-3
93 J. Čondrić G
15 A. Beisebekov M
22 A. Marochkin D
33 Ž. Tomašević D
13 K. Hovhannisyan D
7 M. Ebong M
44 S. Lončar M
6 Y. Vorogovskiy D
88 D. Darboe F
17 A. Aymbetov F
23 F. Ourega M
Bench (12)
10 M. Tomasov
27 T. Dosmagambetov
29 D. Jovančić
21 E. Astanov
31 D. Podymskiy
20 V. Prokopenko
3 V. Haroyan
11 A. Darabayev
8 I. Kuat
55 A. Zarutskiy
72 S. Basmanov
5 M. Gabyshev

Coach: G. Babayan

Ludogorets

3-4-3
1 S. Padt G
22 F. Russo D
24 O. Verdon D
26 N. Sonko-Sundberg D
16 A. Witry D
8 Claude Gonçalves M
6 J. Piotrowski M
44 M. Heister D
11 K. Despodov M
99 Rwan Cruz F
37 B. Tekpetey F
Bench (11)
82 I. Yordanov
64 D. Yankov
77 Caio Vidal
90 S. Delev
30 Pedro Naressi
5 G. Terziev
88 T. Nedelev
32 I. Plastun
10 M. Tissera
69 P. Pepelyashev
12 S. Sluga

Coach: I. Petev

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

H Feșnic · 18 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.