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La Liga
Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias
Malaga
T U T U U
1–3
Full-time
Villarreal
U T T T T
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Malaga Villarreal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
17%
0%
Points per game
1,0
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,2
3,7
Scored
0,7
1,5
Conceded
1,5
2,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,6
0,4
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
20%
80%
Both score Ø 60%
40%
80%
Average goals
2,0
3,4
Scored
0,4
1,4
Conceded
1,6
2,0
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

37% Possession 63%
5 Shots 16
1 Shots on target 7
0 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 0
4 Corners 8
1 Offside 3
17 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Malaga 18. · Villarreal 19. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 6 6 0 0 +22 +14.3 18
2 Real Madrid 6 5 0 1 +11 +10.4 15
3 Betis 6 5 0 1 +2 +0.3 15
4 Ath Madrid 6 4 1 1 +8 +3.3 13
5 Sevilla 6 4 1 1 +3 -0.6 13
6 Alaves 6 3 1 2 +5 +3.1 10
7 La Coruna 6 2 3 1 +2 -1.6 9
8 Espanol 6 2 1 3 +2 -1.5 7
9 Ath Bilbao 5 2 1 2 +1 -1.1 7
10 Santander 6 2 1 3 -5 -2.8 7
11 Vallecano 6 2 1 3 -5 -5.0 7
12 Sociedad 6 2 1 3 -5 -3.2 7
13 Osasuna 6 2 1 3 -7 -0.6 7
14 Levante 5 1 2 2 -2 -0.0 5
15 Getafe 6 1 2 3 -4 -3.2 5
16 Celta 6 0 4 2 -3 -2.6 4
17 Valencia 6 1 1 4 -8 -0.1 4
18 Malaga 5 0 3 2 -6 -3.3 3
19 Villarreal 5 0 2 3 -3 +0.6 2
20 Elche 6 0 2 4 -8 -6.3 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

1. Apr -18 Malaga – Villarreal 1–0 5. Nov -17 Villarreal – Malaga 2–0 12. Feb -17 Villarreal – Malaga 1–1 10. Sep -16 Malaga – Villarreal 0–2 13. Feb -16 Villarreal – Malaga 1–0

Match report

Malaga Villarreal
1–0 Carlos Dotor ⚽
Juan Cruz
12′
José Salinas 🟨
34′
37′
🔁 Pape Gueye
↦ Santi Comesaña
40′
⚽ Alberto Moleiro 1–1
Ilias Akhomach Chakkour
42′
🟨 Ilias Akhomach Chakkour
Dani Lorenzo 🔁
↦ Juan Cruz
45′
Rafael Garrido Hierro 🔁
↦ José Salinas
45′
Half-time 1–2
47′
⚽ Pape Gueye 1–2
Ayoze Pérez
Joaquín Muñoz 🔁
↦ Izan Merino
61′
Adrian Nino 🔁
↦ Carlos Dotor
61′
63′
🔁 Georges Mikautadze
↦ Ayoze Pérez
63′
🔁 Carlos Romero
↦ Ilias Akhomach Chakkour
David Larrubia 🟨
68′
Einar Galilea 🟨
70′
Ramón Enríquez 🔁
↦ Carlos Puga
75′
Ramón Enríquez 🟨
79′
80′
🔁 Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González
↦ Alberto Moleiro
80′
🔁 Carlos Macià
↦ Nathan-Dylan Saliba
82′
ℹ️ Carlos Romero
VAR: Goal cancelled
Alfonso Herrero 🟨
85′
86′
⚽ Pape Gueye 1–3
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Malaga

4-1-4-1
1 Alfonso Herrero G
3 Puga D
15 Ángel Recio D
4 Einar Galilea D
12 José Salinas D
23 Izan Merino M
10 David Larrubia M
8 Carlos Dotor M
18 Pablo Martínez M
19 Juan Cruz M
9 Chupe F
Bench (11)
25 Juan Berrocal
32 J. Fernandez
31 Rafita
17 Eneko Jauregi
22 Dani Lorenzo
13 Carlos López
11 Joaquín Muñoz
21 Adrián Niño Heredia
5 Álex Pastor
14 Rafa Rodríguez
6 Ramón Enríquez

Coach: Funes

Villarreal

4-4-2
25 P. Gulácsi G
3 A. Freeman D
6 Pau Navarro D
12 Renato Veiga D
23 Sergi Cardona D
17 T. Buchanan M
14 Santi Comesaña M
24 N. Saliba M
10 Alberto Moleiro M
11 Ilias Akhomach F
22 Ayoze Pérez F
Bench (12)
13 Rubén Gómez
18 P. Gueye
9 G. Mikautadze
7 Gerard Moreno
15 S. Mouriño
21 T. Oluwaseyi
19 N. Pépé
1 Luíz Júnior
20 Carlos Romero
5 A. Diatta
2 Logan Costa
16 C. Macia

Coach: Iñigo Pérez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,53
🔒
U
3,69
🔒
B ✓
1,94
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
1,20
🔒
U1,5
4,50
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,61
🔒
U2,5
2,23
🔒
O3,5 ✓
2,50
🔒
U3,5
1,50
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
1,54
🔒
BLS nei
2,32
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.