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La Liga

Referee: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo

Malaga

T T T T U

1–0

Full-time

Villarreal

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Malaga Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

Scored

0,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,2

This season — La Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 29%

10%

48%

Points per game

0,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

28%

48%

Both score Ø 37%

28%

45%

Average goals

2,1

2,5

Scored

0,6

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%

14 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

5 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Malaga 20. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	30	23	7	0	+61	76
2	Ath Madrid	29	19	7	3	+35	64
3	Real Madrid	30	19	6	5	+43	63
4	Valencia	30	19	5	6	+27	62
5	Villarreal	29	14	5	10	+7	47
6	Sevilla	30	14	4	12	-7	46
7	Girona	30	12	8	10	+1	44
8	Betis	29	13	4	12	-4	43
9	Celta	30	11	7	12	+3	40
10	Getafe	29	10	9	10	+8	39
11	Eibar	29	11	6	12	-7	39
12	Ath Bilbao	30	8	12	10	-4	36
13	Espanol	30	8	12	10	-11	36
14	Leganes	30	10	6	14	-11	36
15	Sociedad	29	9	6	14	-1	33
16	Alaves	30	10	2	18	-19	32
17	Levante	30	5	13	12	-18	28
18	Las Palmas	30	5	6	19	-40	21
19	La Coruna	29	4	8	17	-34	20
20	Malaga	29	3	5	21	-29	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	12	2	0	+34	38
2	Valencia	15	11	2	2	+19	35
3	Ath Madrid	14	10	4	0	+20	34
4	Real Madrid	15	10	2	3	+27	32
5	Sevilla	15	8	4	3	+6	28
6	Getafe	15	8	3	4	+14	27
7	Girona	15	8	3	4	+11	27
8	Villarreal	14	8	2	4	+10	26
9	Espanol	16	7	5	4	+2	26
10	Eibar	15	7	3	5	+8	24
11	Leganes	15	7	3	5	+1	24
12	Betis	15	7	3	5	+0	24
13	Celta	14	6	5	3	+5	23
14	Ath Bilbao	15	5	8	2	+5	23
15	Alaves	15	7	1	7	-4	22
16	Sociedad	15	6	3	6	+7	21
17	Levante	15	3	6	6	-7	15
18	La Coruna	15	3	5	7	-8	14
19	Las Palmas	15	4	2	9	-16	14
20	Malaga	14	2	3	9	-11	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	11	5	0	+27	38
2	Real Madrid	15	9	4	2	+16	31
3	Ath Madrid	15	9	3	3	+15	30
4	Valencia	15	8	3	4	+8	27
5	Villarreal	15	6	3	6	-3	21
6	Betis	14	6	1	7	-4	19
7	Sevilla	15	6	0	9	-13	18
8	Celta	16	5	2	9	-2	17
9	Girona	15	4	5	6	-10	17
10	Eibar	14	4	3	7	-15	15
11	Ath Bilbao	15	3	4	8	-9	13
12	Levante	15	2	7	6	-11	13
13	Getafe	14	2	6	6	-6	12
14	Sociedad	14	3	3	8	-8	12
15	Leganes	15	3	3	9	-12	12
16	Espanol	14	1	7	6	-13	10
17	Alaves	15	3	1	11	-15	10
18	Las Palmas	15	1	4	10	-24	7
19	La Coruna	14	1	3	10	-26	6
20	Malaga	15	1	2	12	-18	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.