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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Guimaraes

U S U S S

3–0

Full-time

Estrela

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 42%

59%

24%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

59%

35%

Both score Ø 59%

59%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,85 xG 0,39

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Guimaraes 5. · Estrela 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	18	15	1	2	+26	+21.1	46
2	Benfica	18	14	3	1	+26	+22.4	45
3	Porto	18	13	2	3	+18	+12.1	41
4	Sp Braga	18	11	3	4	+16	+10.9	36
5	Guimaraes	17	10	3	4	+9	+2.7	33
6	Moreirense	18	8	5	5	+1	-0.5	29
7	Farense	18	7	3	8	+2	-6.4	24
8	Famalicao	18	5	7	6	-4	-4.7	22
9	Boavista	18	5	5	8	-7	-11.2	20
10	Arouca	18	5	4	9	-1	-2.1	19
11	Gil Vicente	18	5	4	9	-2	-6.1	19
12	Casa Pia	18	5	4	9	-7	-4.1	19
13	Estrela	17	4	6	7	-6	-3.7	18
14	Portimonense	18	5	3	10	-20	-10.5	18
15	Estoril	18	5	2	11	-2	-9.1	17
16	Rio Ave	18	3	7	8	-9	+2.3	16
17	Vizela	18	2	7	9	-14	-4.4	13
18	Chaves	18	3	3	12	-26	-8.6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	9	0	0	+17	+12.5	27
2	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+16	+14.4	23
3	Porto	9	7	1	1	+12	+11.9	22
4	Guimaraes	9	7	0	2	+10	+6.7	21
5	Gil Vicente	9	4	4	1	+9	-2.6	16
6	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+9	+11.6	14
7	Farense	9	4	2	3	+5	+0.3	14
8	Estoril	9	4	1	4	+9	+1.3	13
9	Rio Ave	9	3	3	3	+0	+4.3	12
10	Famalicao	9	3	3	3	-2	-1.1	12
11	Moreirense	8	3	2	3	+0	+0.3	11
12	Portimonense	9	3	2	4	-5	-4.4	11
13	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-4	-3.9	10
14	Estrela	9	3	1	5	-4	-2.4	10
15	Arouca	9	2	2	5	-4	-1.9	8
16	Chaves	9	2	2	5	-7	-1.0	8
17	Vizela	10	1	3	6	-11	-0.9	6
18	Casa Pia	9	1	2	6	-8	-2.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+10	+8.0	22
2	Sp Braga	10	7	1	2	+7	-0.7	22
3	Sp Lisbon	9	6	1	2	+9	+8.6	19
4	Porto	9	6	1	2	+6	+0.2	19
5	Moreirense	10	5	3	2	+1	-0.8	18
6	Casa Pia	9	4	2	3	+1	-1.6	14
7	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	-1	-4.0	12
8	Arouca	9	3	2	4	+3	-0.2	11
9	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-2	-3.6	10
10	Boavista	9	3	1	5	-3	-7.3	10
11	Farense	9	3	1	5	-3	-6.7	10
12	Estrela	8	1	5	2	-2	-1.3	8
13	Vizela	8	1	4	3	-3	-3.5	7
14	Portimonense	9	2	1	6	-15	-6.1	7
15	Rio Ave	9	0	4	5	-9	-2.0	4
16	Estoril	9	1	1	7	-11	-10.4	4
17	Chaves	9	1	1	7	-19	-7.6	4
18	Gil Vicente	9	1	0	8	-11	-3.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.