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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Belenenses

T T U T T

1–0

Full-time

Guimaraes

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

2,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 24%

10%

38%

Points per game

0,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

38%

62%

Both score Ø 58%

48%

67%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

0,6

1,5

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

42% Possession 58%

13 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 23

6 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 18. · Guimaraes 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	22	19	3	0	+41	60
2	Sp Lisbon	22	17	3	2	+28	54
3	Benfica	22	16	2	4	+38	50
4	Sp Braga	22	12	5	5	+16	41
5	Gil Vicente	21	9	7	5	+8	34
6	Guimaraes	21	8	6	7	+6	30
7	Estoril	22	7	9	6	+2	30
8	Portimonense	22	7	6	9	-2	27
9	Maritimo	21	6	7	8	-5	25
10	Santa Clara	22	6	6	10	-15	24
11	Vizela	21	5	8	8	-12	23
12	Boavista	22	3	12	7	-9	21
13	Pacos Ferreira	22	4	9	9	-10	21
14	Famalicao	22	4	8	10	-9	20
15	Tondela	22	6	2	14	-15	20
16	Moreirense	22	4	7	11	-15	19
17	Arouca	21	4	6	11	-19	18
18	Belenenses	21	2	6	13	-28	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+21	31
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+14	28
3	Sp Braga	12	7	3	2	+12	24
4	Benfica	11	7	1	3	+15	22
5	Guimaraes	10	6	2	2	+9	20
6	Santa Clara	11	5	3	3	-5	18
7	Boavista	11	3	7	1	+3	16
8	Gil Vicente	11	4	3	4	+2	15
9	Maritimo	10	3	5	2	+4	14
10	Vizela	11	3	4	4	-4	13
11	Moreirense	10	3	3	4	+0	12
12	Estoril	11	2	6	3	-1	12
13	Tondela	11	4	0	7	-6	12
14	Famalicao	11	2	5	4	-2	11
15	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	5	4	-3	11
16	Portimonense	12	2	4	6	-6	10
17	Arouca	10	3	1	6	-12	10
18	Belenenses	10	2	2	6	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	9	2	0	+20	29
2	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+23	28
3	Sp Lisbon	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	Gil Vicente	10	5	4	1	+6	19
5	Estoril	11	5	3	3	+3	18
6	Sp Braga	10	5	2	3	+4	17
7	Portimonense	10	5	2	3	+4	17
8	Maritimo	11	3	2	6	-9	11
9	Guimaraes	11	2	4	5	-3	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	4	5	-7	10
11	Vizela	10	2	4	4	-8	10
12	Famalicao	11	2	3	6	-7	9
13	Arouca	11	1	5	5	-7	8
14	Tondela	11	2	2	7	-9	8
15	Moreirense	12	1	4	7	-15	7
16	Santa Clara	11	1	3	7	-10	6
17	Boavista	11	0	5	6	-12	5
18	Belenenses	11	0	4	7	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.