Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Belenenses
Porto
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Porto
|
17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | +33 | 47 |
| 2 |
Sp Lisbon
|
18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | +24 | 47 |
| 3 |
Benfica
|
18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | +34 | 41 |
| 4 |
Sp Braga
|
18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | +13 | 32 |
| 5 |
Gil Vicente
|
18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | +6 | 27 |
| 6 |
Estoril
|
17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | +4 | 25 |
| 7 |
Portimonense
|
17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | +0 | 24 |
| 8 |
Guimaraes
|
17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | +4 | 23 |
| 9 |
Maritimo
|
18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 23 |
| 10 |
Boavista
|
18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | -8 | 18 |
| 11 |
Pacos Ferreira
|
18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -9 | 18 |
| 12 |
Tondela
|
18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -12 | 17 |
| 13 |
Santa Clara
|
18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -17 | 17 |
| 14 |
Moreirense
|
18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -9 | 16 |
| 15 |
Famalicao
|
18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -10 | 16 |
| 16 |
Vizela
|
18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -14 | 16 |
| 17 |
Arouca
|
17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -16 | 14 |
| 18 |
Belenenses
|
17 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -19 | 11 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Famalicao
Belenenses
Belenenses
Arouca
Vizela
Belenenses
Sp Braga
Belenenses
Belenenses
Estoril
Manuel Mota · 73 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,36 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.