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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Man City

S S S S U

1–1

Full-time

Chelsea

S S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

0,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 55%

68%

42%

Points per game

2,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

68%

63%

Both score Ø 50%

42%

58%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,02 xG 1,85

57% Possession 43%

14 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Chelsea 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	20	15	3	2	+26	+21.6	48
2	Aston Villa	20	13	3	4	+9	-5.2	42
3	Man City	19	13	2	4	+26	+16.6	41
4	Liverpool	20	10	4	6	+4	+8.8	34
5	Man United	20	8	7	5	+4	+9.1	31
6	Chelsea	19	8	6	5	+11	+5.6	30
7	Brentford	20	9	3	8	+4	+4.6	30
8	Sunderland	20	7	9	4	+2	-11.3	30
9	Newcastle	20	8	5	7	+4	+7.4	29
10	Brighton	20	7	7	6	+3	+4.1	28
11	Fulham	20	8	4	8	-1	-3.9	28
12	Everton	20	8	4	8	-2	-7.3	28
13	Tottenham	20	7	6	7	+4	-6.5	27
14	Crystal Palace	20	7	6	7	-1	+6.1	27
15	Bournemouth	20	5	8	7	-7	+1.4	23
16	Leeds	20	5	7	8	-7	-0.4	22
17	Nott'm Forest	20	5	3	12	-14	-5.3	18
18	West Ham	20	3	5	12	-20	-14.4	14
19	Burnley	20	3	3	14	-19	-21.5	12
20	Wolves	20	1	3	16	-26	-9.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	9	1	0	+21	+13.7	28
2	Aston Villa	10	8	1	1	+10	-0.5	25
3	Man City	9	8	0	1	+19	+11.5	24
4	Brentford	10	6	3	1	+10	+4.7	21
5	Sunderland	10	5	5	0	+8	-3.7	20
6	Newcastle	10	6	2	2	+6	+7.3	20
7	Liverpool	10	6	2	2	+5	+6.2	20
8	Brighton	10	5	4	1	+7	+4.0	19
9	Man United	10	5	3	2	+5	+9.1	18
10	Fulham	10	5	2	3	+5	+0.4	17
11	Leeds	10	4	4	2	+5	+6.6	16
12	Bournemouth	10	4	4	2	+4	+6.7	16
13	Chelsea	10	4	3	3	+4	+4.4	15
14	Everton	10	4	2	4	-1	-2.1	14
15	Crystal Palace	10	2	5	3	-2	+7.4	11
16	Nott'm Forest	10	3	1	6	-5	+2.3	10
17	Tottenham	10	2	3	5	+0	+0.3	9
18	Burnley	10	2	2	6	-5	-8.0	8
19	West Ham	10	2	1	7	-11	-5.4	7
20	Wolves	10	1	1	8	-13	-2.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	6	2	2	+5	+7.8	20
2	Tottenham	10	5	3	2	+4	-6.8	18
3	Man City	10	5	2	3	+7	+5.0	17
4	Aston Villa	10	5	2	3	-1	-4.7	17
5	Crystal Palace	10	5	1	4	+1	-1.2	16
6	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+7	+1.2	15
7	Liverpool	10	4	2	4	-1	+2.6	14
8	Everton	10	4	2	4	-1	-5.2	14
9	Man United	10	3	4	3	-1	-0.0	13
10	Fulham	10	3	2	5	-6	-4.2	11
11	Sunderland	10	2	4	4	-6	-7.6	10
12	Newcastle	10	2	3	5	-2	+0.1	9
13	Brighton	10	2	3	5	-4	+0.1	9
14	Brentford	10	3	0	7	-6	-0.1	9
15	Nott'm Forest	10	2	2	6	-9	-7.6	8
16	West Ham	10	1	4	5	-9	-9.0	7
17	Bournemouth	10	1	4	5	-11	-5.3	7
18	Leeds	10	1	3	6	-12	-7.0	6
19	Burnley	10	1	1	8	-14	-13.4	4
20	Wolves	10	0	2	8	-13	-7.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.