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League Cup

Referee: Simon Hooper

Chelsea

T U U T S

2–3

Full-time

Arsenal

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

2,0

2,3

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

4,7

2,0

Scored

3,0

1,7

Conceded

1,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

10 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 9

4 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 3. · Arsenal 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	4	4	0	0	+8	+2.8	12
2	Cardiff	5	4	0	1	+4	+1.7	12
3	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+4	+1.5	9
4	Newcastle	4	3	0	1	+4	+0.4	9
5	Wycombe	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.4	8
6	Brentford	4	2	1	1	+5	+0.1	7
7	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.8	7
8	Wrexham	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.4	7
9	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.1	7
10	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.5	7
11	Swansea	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.2	7
12	Grimsby	4	2	1	1	-2	+1.8	7
13	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+10	+0.1	6
14	Doncaster	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
15	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
16	Cambridge United	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.1	6
17	Wolves	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.4	6
18	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.8	6
19	Bradford	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.7	6
20	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
21	Reading	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.3	6
22	Port Vale	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
23	Wigan	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
24	Crystal Palace	3	1	2	0	+3	-2.9	5
25	Plymouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
26	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-5	-0.5	4
27	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
28	Stockport County	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
29	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.8	3
30	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
31	Preston	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
32	Everton	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
33	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
34	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
35	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
36	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
37	Cheltenham	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
38	Liverpool	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
39	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.9	3
40	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
41	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
42	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
43	Huddersfield	3	0	2	1	-2	+1.1	2
44	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
45	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
46	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
47	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
48	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
49	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
51	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
54	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
55	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
56	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
57	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
58	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
59	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
60	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
61	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
62	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
63	Burton Albion	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
64	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
65	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
68	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
69	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
70	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
71	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
72	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
73	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
74	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
75	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
76	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
77	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
78	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
79	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
80	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
81	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
82	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
83	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
84	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
85	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
86	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
87	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
88	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
89	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
90	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
91	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
92	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Newcastle	4	3	0	1	+4	+0.4	9
2	Swansea	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.2	7
3	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
4	Wolves	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.4	6
5	Cardiff	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.1	6
6	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
7	Wigan	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
8	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.8	4
9	Wrexham	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.4	4
10	Grimsby	3	1	1	1	-3	+1.8	4
11	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-5	-0.5	4
12	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
13	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
14	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
15	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
16	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
17	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
18	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
19	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
20	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
21	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
22	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
23	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
24	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
25	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
26	Liverpool	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
27	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
28	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
29	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
30	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
31	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
33	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
35	Wycombe	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
36	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
37	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
38	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
39	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
40	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.1	1
41	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
42	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
43	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
44	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
45	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
46	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
47	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
48	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
49	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
50	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
51	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
52	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
53	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
54	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
55	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
56	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
57	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
58	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
59	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.1	9
2	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+4	+1.5	9
3	Wycombe	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.4	7
4	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+10	+0.1	6
5	Brentford	3	2	0	1	+5	+0.1	6
6	Doncaster	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
7	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
8	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
9	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.6	6
10	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
11	Bradford	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.7	6
12	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+3	-2.9	4
13	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
14	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Wrexham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
17	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
18	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
20	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
21	Reading	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	3
22	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
23	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
24	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
25	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
26	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
27	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
33	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
35	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
36	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
37	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
38	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
39	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
42	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
43	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
44	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
45	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
46	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
47	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
48	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
49	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
50	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
51	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
52	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
53	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
54	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
55	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
56	Everton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
57	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
58	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
59	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
60	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
61	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.