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Pro League
Referee: J Vergoote
Mechelen
T T T S S
2–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mechelen Royal Excel Mouscron
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,5
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
2,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,0
This season — Pro League · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 28%
33%
22%
Points per game
1,2
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
78%
39%
Both score Ø 61%
78%
44%
Average goals
3,6
2,4
Scored
1,6
0,8
Conceded
1,9
1,6
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%
9 Shots 8
6 Shots on target 6
5 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 3
2 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 15
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Mechelen 14. · Royal Excel Mouscron 19.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Genk 18 10 7 1 +19 37
2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 22 10 6 6 +7 36
3 Antwerp 18 10 5 3 +14 35
4 Club Brugge 18 10 4 4 +23 34
5 Charleroi 21 10 4 7 +6 34
6 Beerschot VA 19 10 1 8 -1 31
7 Anderlecht 18 7 9 2 +11 30
8 Kortrijk 21 8 5 8 -2 29
9 Gent 19 9 1 9 +7 28
10 Waregem 20 8 3 9 -5 27
11 Standard 18 6 6 6 +1 24
12 Eupen 18 5 9 4 -4 24
13 Oostende 17 6 4 7 +2 22
14 Mechelen 18 6 4 8 -6 22
15 Cercle Brugge 20 7 0 13 -7 21
16 Waasland-Beveren 19 5 4 10 -14 19
17 Beveren 19 5 4 10 -14 19
18 St Truiden 20 4 6 10 -10 18
19 Royal Excel Mouscron 18 4 5 9 -13 17
20 Mouscron 19 4 5 10 -14 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Mechelen Royal Excel Mouscron
1–0 K. Mrabti
G. Engvall
38′
40′
🟨 Saad Agouzoul
Half-time 1–0
M. Shved 🔁
↦ N. Storm
62′
62′
🔁 S. Tabekou
↦ Bruno Xadas
62′
🔁 B. Badibanga
↦ I. Faraj
69′
D. Mohamed 1–1
A. Vranckx 🔁
↦ G. Engvall
75′
I. de Camargo 🔁
↦ G. Hairemans
75′
2–1 M. Shved
R. Schoofs
83′
O. Kaya 🔁
↦ K. Mrabti
84′
84′
🔁 C. Brym
↦ F. Olinga
88′
🔁 B. Van Durmen
↦ D. Hočko
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Mechelen

4-3-2-1
15 Y. Thoelen G
3 L. Bijker D
5 S. Walsh D
23 T. Peyre D
29 I. Kaboré D
7 G. Hairemans M
13 J. Van Damme M
16 R. Schoofs M
11 N. Storm F
19 K. Mrabti M
20 G. Engvall F
Bench (7)
35 M. Shved
40 A. Vranckx
10 I. de Camargo
8 O. Kaya
6 R. Bushiri
1 G. Coucke
26 V. Wernersson

Coach: W. Vrancken

Royal Excel Mouscron

4-2-3-1
16 H. Koffi G
26 M. Silvestre D
13 A. Ciranni D
5 S. Agouzoul D
6 D. Hočko M
11 D. Mohamed M
7 F. Olinga F
23 Bruno Xadas M
8 J. Onana M
20 Nuno da Costa F
14 I. Faraj F
Bench (7)
70 S. Tabekou
29 B. Badibanga
25 C. Brym
30 B. Van Durmen
18 R. Quirynen
40 W. Simba
90 V. Vasić

Coach: Jorge Simão

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Vergoote · 123 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.