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Primeira Liga
Referee: Gustavo Correia
Portimonense
T S T T T
1–0
Full-time
Nacional
U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portimonense Nacional
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,3
1,5
Scored
0,7
0,8
Conceded
1,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,2
This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 22%
14%
29%
Points per game
0,6
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 43%
43%
43%
Both score Ø 57%
57%
57%
Average goals
2,3
2,1
Scored
0,7
1,1
Conceded
1,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,9
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%
14 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 3
1 Offside 0
17 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Portimonense 18. · Nacional 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 8 7 1 0 +16 22
2 Porto 8 5 1 2 +9 16
3 Benfica 7 5 0 2 +8 15
4 Sp Braga 7 5 0 2 +5 15
5 Guimaraes 8 4 1 3 -1 13
6 Pacos Ferreira 7 3 2 2 +1 11
7 Nacional 7 2 4 1 +1 10
8 Rio Ave 7 2 4 1 +0 10
9 Santa Clara 8 3 1 4 -1 10
10 Famalicao 8 2 3 3 -5 9
11 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 -2 8
12 Tondela 8 2 2 4 -8 8
13 Belenenses 7 1 4 2 -2 7
14 Maritimo 7 2 1 4 -3 7
15 Boavista 7 1 3 3 -5 6
16 Farense 7 1 2 4 -3 5
17 Gil Vicente 7 1 2 4 -4 5
18 Portimonense 7 1 1 5 -6 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Portimonense Nacional
21′
🔁 M. Rouai
↦ Rúben Freitas
Dener 🟨
36′
Half-time 0–0
Luquinha 🟨
62′
64′
🔁 V. Danilović
↦ V. Koziello
64′
🔁 K. Gorré
↦ João Victor
Ricardo Vaz Té 🔁
↦ Luquinhas
68′
Welinton Júnior 🔁
↦ Júlio César
77′
Aylton Boa Morte 🔁
↦ Anderson Oliveira
77′
78′
🟨 Julio Cesar
80′
🔁 B. Róchez
↦ Rúben Micael
80′
🔁 João Vigário
↦ Lucas Kal
Pedro Sá 🟨
85′
Welinton Junior ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
87′
88′
🟨 Julio Cesar
88′
🟥 Julio Cesar
1–0 Fabricio
89′
Willyan 🔁
↦ Fabricio
92′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Portimonense

4-3-3
94 Samuel G
2 Maurício Antônio
3 Lucas Possignolo D
18 F. Moufi D
22 K. Anzai D
7 Dener M
21 Pedro Sá M
20 Luquinhas M
9 Fabricio F
16 Júlio César F
11 Anderson Oliveira F
Bench (9)
12 Ricardo Vaz Té
71 Welinton Júnior
77 Aylton Boa Morte
28 Willyan
96 Fernando Medeiros
1 Ricardo Ferreira
5 Rômulo
29 Safawi Rasid
19 Henrique

Coach: Paulo Sérgio

Nacional

4-3-3
13 Daniel G
27 Rúben Freitas D
44 Júlio César D
3 Lucas Kal D
4 Pedrão D
14 Rúben Micael M
10 V. Koziello M
6 A. Alhassan M
77 João Victor F
94 B. Riascos F
7 João Camacho F
Bench (9)
80 M. Rouai
8 V. Danilović
11 K. Gorré
35 B. Róchez
17 João Vigário
45 V. Thill
33 Rui Correia
55 Nuno Borges
1 R. Piscitelli

Coach: Carlos Simões

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,10
U
3,37
B
3,38
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,98
U2,5 ✓
1,81
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Gustavo Correia · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
29,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,39 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.