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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota

Belenenses

S T U U T

1–1

Full-time

Farense

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Farense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

17%

40%

Both score Ø 29%

17%

40%

Average goals

1,3

3,0

Scored

0,3

1,0

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

20%

40%

Both score Ø 30%

20%

40%

Average goals

1,2

3,0

Scored

0,4

1,0

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

67% Possession 33%

7 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 6

5 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Belenenses 14. · Farense 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+12	15
2	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Porto	6	3	1	2	+6	10
4	Sp Braga	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	2	2	-1	8
7	Santa Clara	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Nacional	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Maritimo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
11	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	-2	6
12	Famalicao	5	1	3	1	-3	6
13	Gil Vicente	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Tondela	5	1	2	2	-4	5
16	Portimonense	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Boavista	5	0	3	2	-6	3
18	Farense	5	0	1	4	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Moreirense	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Porto	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Pacos Ferreira	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Tondela	3	1	1	1	-3	4
9	Nacional	3	0	3	0	+0	3
10	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Famalicao	3	0	2	1	-4	2
14	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Farense	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Boavista	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+3	6
4	Rio Ave	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Porto	3	1	1	1	+4	4
6	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Belenenses	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Boavista	3	0	3	0	+0	3
10	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Portimonense	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Gil Vicente	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Farense	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.