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Eredivisie

Referee: E Blank

NAC Breda

T T U T U

3–4

Full-time

Nijmegen

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

NAC Breda Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

17%

100%

Average goals

1,0

4,5

Scored

0,2

2,8

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 18/17 matches

Win Ø 32%

17%

47%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

50%

82%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

76%

Average goals

2,3

4,2

Scored

0,9

2,5

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,82 xG 1,19

44% Possession 56%

14 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

3 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match NAC Breda 16. · Nijmegen 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	19	17	1	1	+36	+19.1	52
2	Feyenoord	18	11	3	4	+21	+20.3	36
3	Ajax	18	8	7	3	+9	+4.0	31
4	Nijmegen	17	8	5	4	+14	+5.6	29
5	Groningen	17	8	4	5	+5	+10.0	28
6	AZ Alkmaar	18	8	4	6	+2	+12.5	28
7	Twente	18	6	8	4	+5	+18.3	26
8	Sparta Rotterdam	18	8	2	8	-11	-2.8	26
9	Heerenveen	17	6	5	6	+3	+12.5	23
10	Zwolle	19	6	5	8	-15	-15.0	23
11	Utrecht	16	6	4	6	+5	-2.9	22
12	For Sittard	19	6	4	9	-5	-10.8	22
13	Go Ahead Eagles	19	4	9	6	-3	-12.1	21
14	Excelsior	18	6	2	10	-15	-12.3	20
15	Telstar	19	3	7	9	-8	-8.6	16
16	NAC Breda	18	3	5	10	-10	-7.1	14
17	Volendam	18	3	5	10	-13	-16.4	14
18	Heracles	18	4	2	12	-20	-14.1	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	7	1	1	+17	+11.3	22
2	Feyenoord	9	6	1	2	+10	+11.7	19
3	Nijmegen	8	5	2	1	+11	+6.4	17
4	Ajax	9	5	2	2	+6	+7.2	17
5	For Sittard	10	5	2	3	+2	-0.8	17
6	Utrecht	8	5	1	2	+9	+2.8	16
7	Zwolle	9	5	1	3	-2	-1.1	16
8	Groningen	9	4	3	2	+7	+7.7	15
9	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	3	1	+4	+7.1	15
10	Twente	9	4	3	2	+2	+11.6	15
11	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	5	1	+3	+0.6	14
12	Sparta Rotterdam	10	4	2	4	-7	-1.8	14
13	Heerenveen	9	3	4	2	+1	+8.7	13
14	Excelsior	10	4	1	5	-2	-5.5	13
15	Volendam	9	3	3	3	+2	-1.3	12
16	NAC Breda	9	3	2	4	-1	+2.9	11
17	Heracles	8	3	1	4	-3	-1.6	10
18	Telstar	10	1	4	5	-5	-1.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+19	+7.8	30
2	Feyenoord	9	5	2	2	+11	+8.7	17
3	Ajax	9	3	5	1	+3	-3.3	14
4	AZ Alkmaar	10	4	1	5	-2	+5.4	13
5	Groningen	8	4	1	3	-2	+2.3	13
6	Nijmegen	9	3	3	3	+3	-0.8	12
7	Sparta Rotterdam	8	4	0	4	-4	-1.0	12
8	Twente	9	2	5	2	+3	+6.7	11
9	Heerenveen	8	3	1	4	+2	+3.8	10
10	Telstar	9	2	3	4	-3	-7.6	9
11	Go Ahead Eagles	10	1	4	5	-6	-12.7	7
12	Zwolle	10	1	4	5	-13	-13.9	7
13	Excelsior	8	2	1	5	-13	-6.8	7
14	Utrecht	8	1	3	4	-4	-5.8	6
15	For Sittard	9	1	2	6	-7	-9.9	5
16	Heracles	10	1	1	8	-17	-12.5	4
17	NAC Breda	9	0	3	6	-9	-10.0	3
18	Volendam	9	0	2	7	-15	-15.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.