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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Swansea

U T U S U

1–2

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 34%

29%

38%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 62%

71%

52%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,44 xG 1,10

58% Possession 42%

10 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 17. · Middlesbrough 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	21	17	1	3	+27	+16.4	52
2	Ipswich	22	16	4	2	+19	+12.1	52
3	Leeds	20	11	5	4	+14	+15.3	38
4	Southampton	20	10	6	4	+3	+7.6	36
5	West Brom	20	10	5	5	+13	+2.8	35
6	Sunderland	21	10	3	8	+9	+13.3	33
7	Hull	21	9	6	6	+4	+5.2	33
8	Preston	21	9	5	7	-6	-8.2	32
9	Norwich	21	9	4	8	+1	-3.3	31
10	Blackburn	21	10	1	10	+0	+2.1	31
11	Cardiff	21	9	3	9	+4	-5.6	30
12	Watford	21	7	7	7	+4	+1.9	28
13	Middlesbrough	21	8	3	10	-1	+9.3	27
14	Coventry	21	6	8	7	+3	+7.1	26
15	Bristol City	21	7	5	9	-2	+1.5	26
16	Birmingham	21	7	5	9	-5	-2.1	26
17	Swansea	21	6	7	8	+0	-6.4	25
18	Plymouth	21	6	5	10	-2	-11.4	23
19	Stoke	21	6	4	11	-9	-1.1	22
20	Millwall	21	5	6	10	-7	-7.5	21
21	Huddersfield	21	4	9	8	-15	-11.3	21
22	QPR	21	5	5	11	-11	-8.1	20
23	Sheffield Weds	21	3	4	14	-20	-6.6	13
24	Rotherham	21	2	7	12	-23	-23.2	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	11	9	1	1	+13	+11.6	28
2	Leicester	11	9	0	2	+14	+9.0	27
3	Leeds	10	7	3	0	+12	+12.8	24
4	Sunderland	11	7	0	4	+7	+7.1	21
5	West Brom	10	6	2	2	+8	+4.2	20
6	Plymouth	10	6	1	3	+10	-3.9	19
7	Watford	12	5	4	3	+10	+7.8	19
8	Birmingham	10	5	4	1	+6	+1.1	19
9	Cardiff	11	6	1	4	+5	-2.4	19
10	Norwich	10	6	1	3	+4	+2.7	19
11	Coventry	11	4	6	1	+5	+5.4	18
12	Southampton	9	5	2	2	+4	+6.2	17
13	Preston	10	5	2	3	-2	-3.4	17
14	Hull	10	4	4	2	+5	+6.4	16
15	Middlesbrough	11	5	1	5	+1	+7.2	16
16	Blackburn	11	5	0	6	-4	+1.5	15
17	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	+1	+2.3	14
18	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-3	+1.2	14
19	Swansea	10	2	5	3	+0	-0.1	11
20	Rotherham	11	2	5	4	-2	-7.7	11
21	Huddersfield	11	2	5	4	-8	-4.4	11
22	QPR	10	2	3	5	-6	-2.0	9
23	Sheffield Weds	10	2	3	5	-6	-0.4	9
24	Millwall	10	2	2	6	-8	-3.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	10	8	1	1	+13	+7.4	25
2	Ipswich	11	7	3	1	+6	+0.5	24
3	Southampton	11	5	4	2	-1	+1.4	19
4	Hull	11	5	2	4	-1	-1.1	17
5	Blackburn	10	5	1	4	+4	+0.6	16
6	West Brom	10	4	3	3	+5	-1.4	15
7	Preston	11	4	3	4	-4	-4.8	15
8	Leeds	10	4	2	4	+2	+2.5	14
9	Swansea	11	4	2	5	+0	-6.3	14
10	Millwall	11	3	4	4	+1	-3.9	13
11	Sunderland	10	3	3	4	+2	+6.1	12
12	Norwich	11	3	3	5	-3	-6.0	12
13	Bristol City	11	3	3	5	-3	-0.8	12
14	Cardiff	10	3	2	5	-1	-3.2	11
15	Middlesbrough	10	3	2	5	-2	+2.1	11
16	QPR	11	3	2	6	-5	-6.2	11
17	Huddersfield	10	2	4	4	-7	-6.8	10
18	Watford	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.0	9
19	Coventry	10	2	2	6	-2	+1.7	8
20	Stoke	10	2	2	6	-6	-2.3	8
21	Birmingham	11	2	1	8	-11	-3.2	7
22	Plymouth	11	0	4	7	-12	-7.4	4
23	Sheffield Weds	11	1	1	9	-14	-6.2	4
24	Rotherham	10	0	2	8	-21	-15.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.