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Eredivisie

Referee: S van der Eijk

Ajax

U U S S S

3–1

Full-time

Waalwijk

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Waalwijk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

1,5

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 43%

55%

30%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

65%

60%

Both score Ø 65%

70%

60%

Average goals

3,9

3,1

Scored

2,8

1,6

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

74% Possession 26%

17 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 4. · Waalwijk 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	21	13	7	1	+28	46
2	AZ Alkmaar	21	13	5	3	+21	44
3	PSV Eindhoven	21	13	3	5	+30	42
4	Ajax	20	11	7	2	+35	40
5	Twente	18	10	6	2	+20	36
6	Sparta Rotterdam	19	10	6	3	+16	36
7	Utrecht	20	8	6	6	-2	30
8	Waalwijk	20	6	8	6	+0	26
9	For Sittard	21	7	5	9	-7	26
10	Nijmegen	21	4	12	5	+2	24
11	Heerenveen	20	6	6	8	-4	24
12	Vitesse	21	5	8	8	-10	23
13	Go Ahead Eagles	21	5	7	9	-8	22
14	Excelsior	21	6	2	13	-28	20
15	Volendam	20	4	5	11	-23	17
16	FC Emmen	21	3	7	11	-20	16
17	Cambuur	21	3	4	14	-24	13
18	Groningen	21	3	4	14	-26	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	9	1	1	+27	28
2	Twente	10	8	2	0	+21	26
3	Feyenoord	10	6	4	0	+16	22
4	Sparta Rotterdam	10	7	1	2	+11	22
5	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	4	1	+9	19
6	Waalwijk	10	5	3	2	+9	18
7	Ajax	9	4	4	1	+19	16
8	Excelsior	10	5	1	4	-3	16
9	Utrecht	9	4	3	2	+1	15
10	Nijmegen	11	2	8	1	+6	14
11	FC Emmen	11	2	7	2	-2	13
12	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	4	4	-3	13
13	For Sittard	11	3	3	5	-3	12
14	Heerenveen	10	3	2	5	-3	11
15	Vitesse	10	2	4	4	-9	10
16	Volendam	10	3	1	6	-11	10
17	Groningen	10	2	2	6	-7	8
18	Cambuur	11	1	0	10	-18	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	11	8	1	2	+12	25
2	Ajax	11	7	3	1	+16	24
3	Feyenoord	11	7	3	1	+12	24
4	Utrecht	11	4	3	4	-3	15
5	Sparta Rotterdam	9	3	5	1	+5	14
6	PSV Eindhoven	10	4	2	4	+3	14
7	For Sittard	10	4	2	4	-4	14
8	Vitesse	11	3	4	4	-1	13
9	Heerenveen	10	3	4	3	-1	13
10	Twente	8	2	4	2	-1	10
11	Nijmegen	10	2	4	4	-4	10
12	Cambuur	10	2	4	4	-6	10
13	Go Ahead Eagles	10	2	3	5	-5	9
14	Waalwijk	10	1	5	4	-9	8
15	Volendam	10	1	4	5	-12	7
16	Groningen	11	1	2	8	-19	5
17	Excelsior	11	1	1	9	-25	4
18	FC Emmen	10	1	0	9	-18	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.