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Ligue 1
Referee: E Wattellier
Lyon
S S U S U
2–1
Full-time
Lens
S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Lens
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,7
2,0
Scored
1,8
1,2
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches
Win Ø 50%
41%
59%
Points per game
1,5
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
50%
41%
Both score Ø 55%
59%
50%
Average goals
2,6
2,3
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
1,1
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,45 xG 1,15
41% Possession 59%
11 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 5
4 Offside 4
15 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lyon 10. · Lens 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 23 17 3 3 +35 +2.1 54
2 Marseille 23 15 4 4 +25 +3.1 49
3 Monaco 23 14 5 4 +21 +3.0 47
4 Lens 22 13 7 2 +18 +0.9 46
5 Lille 23 12 5 6 +13 +3.6 41
6 Rennes 23 12 4 7 +14 +0.5 40
7 Nice 23 10 7 6 +9 +0.5 37
8 Lorient 23 10 6 7 +0 -3.6 36
9 Reims 23 7 12 4 +4 +5.7 33
10 Lyon 22 9 5 8 +9 +2.0 32
11 Toulouse 23 9 5 9 +0 +0.9 32
12 Clermont 23 8 6 9 -7 -2.1 30
13 Nantes 23 6 10 7 -2 -1.1 28
14 Montpellier 23 7 2 14 -11 -3.2 23
15 Brest 23 4 8 11 -14 -3.8 20
16 Troyes 23 4 7 12 -19 -4.2 19
17 Strasbourg 23 3 9 11 -14 -3.8 18
18 Ajaccio 23 5 3 15 -24 +0.3 18
19 Auxerre 23 3 6 14 -28 +3.4 15
20 Angers 23 2 4 17 -29 -4.1 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lyon Lens
Castello Lukeba 🟨
14′
1–0 A. Lacazette
R. Cherki
23′
39′
D. Machado 1–1
F. Sotoca
Half-time 1–1
A. Sarr 🔁
↦ A. Lacazette
46′
63′
🔁 P. Frankowski
↦ J. Le Cardinal
63′
🔁 L. Openda
↦ A. Fulgini
2–1 R. Cherki
M. Caqueret
64′
M. Dembélé 🔁
↦ B. Barcola
66′
69′
🔁 David Costa
↦ J. Gradit
77′
🔁 M. Haïdara
↦ D. Machado
77′
🔁 R. Labeau Lascary
↦ F. Sotoca
J. Lepenant 🔁
↦ R. Cherki
80′
85′
🟨 Salis Abdul Samed
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Lyon

3-4-1-2
1 Anthony Lopes G
2 S. Diomandé D
5 D. Lovren D
4 C. Lukeba D
20 S. Kumbedi M
6 M. Caqueret M
88 C. Tolisso M
3 N. Tagliafico M
18 R. Cherki F
10 A. Lacazette F
26 B. Barcola F
Bench (9)
7 A. Sarr
9 M. Dembélé
24 J. Lepenant
36 S. Lega
8 H. Aouar
12 Henrique
17 J. Boateng
23 Thiago Mendes
35 R. Riou

Coach: L. Blanc

Lens

3-4-2-1
30 B. Samba G
24 J. Gradit D
4 K. Danso D
14 F. Medina D
25 J. Le Cardinal M
26 S. Abdul Samed M
8 S. Fofana M
3 D. Machado M
28 A. Thomasson F
20 A. Fulgini F
7 F. Sotoca F
Bench (9)
29 P. Frankowski
11 L. Openda
10 David Costa
21 M. Haïdara
36 R. Labeau Lascary
6 J. Onana
23 I. Boura
13 Ł. Poręba
16 J. Leca

Coach: F. Haise

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,38
U
3,46
B
2,94
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,91
U2,5
1,92
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

E Wattellier · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.