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Ligue 1

Referee: J Brisard

Marseille

U S T U T

3–2

Full-time

Lyon

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

2,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 57%

52%

61%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

65%

52%

Both score Ø 46%

48%

43%

Average goals

3,4

2,6

Scored

2,1

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,33 xG 1,47

52% Possession 48%

18 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

0 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 4. · Lyon 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	24	18	3	3	+34	+29.0	57
2	Lens	24	17	2	5	+24	+15.9	53
3	Lyon	23	14	3	6	+14	+8.6	45
4	Marseille	23	12	4	7	+17	+9.2	40
5	Lille	24	12	4	8	+6	+9.4	40
6	Rennes	24	11	7	6	+3	-1.2	40
7	Monaco	24	11	4	9	+4	+6.2	37
8	Strasbourg	24	10	5	9	+9	+8.4	35
9	Brest	24	9	6	9	-2	+0.1	33
10	Lorient	24	8	9	7	-4	-1.2	33
11	Toulouse	24	8	7	9	+5	+3.8	31
12	Angers	24	8	5	11	-8	-15.6	29
13	Le Havre	24	6	8	10	-10	-10.1	26
14	Paris FC	24	6	8	10	-12	-12.3	26
15	Nice	24	6	6	12	-14	-10.3	24
16	Auxerre	24	4	6	14	-16	-7.3	18
17	Nantes	24	4	5	15	-19	-13.0	17
18	Metz	24	3	4	17	-31	-19.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	10	1	0	+26	+16.2	31
2	Lens	12	10	0	2	+15	+12.8	30
3	Lyon	11	9	0	2	+12	+9.7	27
4	Monaco	13	8	1	4	+8	+8.1	25
5	Marseille	11	7	3	1	+16	+8.2	24
6	Rennes	12	7	3	2	+11	+6.6	24
7	Strasbourg	12	7	2	3	+12	+11.9	23
8	Lorient	12	6	5	1	+6	+4.5	23
9	Lille	12	7	2	3	+6	+8.2	23
10	Brest	12	6	3	3	+5	+8.6	21
11	Angers	12	6	2	4	+3	-3.6	20
12	Le Havre	13	5	5	3	+3	+2.3	20
13	Toulouse	12	4	5	3	+4	+5.5	17
14	Nice	12	4	5	3	+0	-0.6	17
15	Paris FC	12	3	4	5	-7	-4.0	13
16	Auxerre	12	3	2	7	-5	+1.5	11
17	Metz	12	2	3	7	-9	-3.1	9
18	Nantes	12	2	2	8	-10	-6.8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	8	2	3	+8	+12.8	26
2	Lens	12	7	2	3	+9	+3.2	23
3	Lyon	12	5	3	4	+2	-1.1	18
4	Lille	12	5	2	5	+0	+1.2	17
5	Marseille	12	5	1	6	+1	+0.9	16
6	Rennes	12	4	4	4	-8	-7.8	16
7	Toulouse	12	4	2	6	+1	-1.7	14
8	Paris FC	12	3	4	5	-5	-8.4	13
9	Strasbourg	12	3	3	6	-3	-3.6	12
10	Monaco	11	3	3	5	-4	-1.8	12
11	Brest	12	3	3	6	-7	-8.5	12
12	Lorient	12	2	4	6	-10	-5.7	10
13	Nantes	12	2	3	7	-9	-6.2	9
14	Angers	12	2	3	7	-11	-12.0	9
15	Auxerre	12	1	4	7	-11	-8.9	7
16	Nice	12	2	1	9	-14	-9.7	7
17	Le Havre	11	1	3	7	-13	-12.5	6
18	Metz	12	1	1	10	-22	-16.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.