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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Nott'm Forest

U U S S U

1–0

Full-time

Man United

U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 45%

55%

34%

Points per game

1,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

52%

59%

Both score Ø 45%

45%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,48 xG 1,63

32% Possession 68%

8 Shots 23

2 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 8

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 10

1 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 3. · Man United 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	29	21	7	1	+42	+40.9	70
2	Arsenal	30	17	10	3	+30	+22.1	61
3	Nott'm Forest	29	16	6	7	+14	+2.8	54
4	Chelsea	29	14	7	8	+16	+16.9	49
5	Man City	29	14	6	9	+15	+12.2	48
6	Newcastle	28	14	5	9	+9	+10.6	47
7	Brighton	29	12	11	6	+6	+2.8	47
8	Fulham	30	12	9	9	+4	+5.3	45
9	Aston Villa	29	12	9	8	-4	+1.6	45
10	Bournemouth	29	12	8	9	+12	+14.3	44
11	Brentford	29	12	5	12	+5	-0.5	41
12	Crystal Palace	28	10	9	9	+3	+8.2	39
13	Man United	29	10	7	12	-3	-6.3	37
14	Tottenham	29	10	4	15	+12	-1.1	34
15	Everton	29	7	13	9	-4	-3.6	34
16	West Ham	30	9	7	14	-17	-9.8	34
17	Wolves	30	8	5	17	-17	-14.8	29
18	Ipswich	29	3	8	18	-34	-31.2	17
19	Leicester	29	4	5	20	-40	-28.8	17
20	Southampton	29	2	3	24	-49	-41.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	2	1	+20	+19.9	35
2	Arsenal	15	10	4	1	+18	+16.4	34
3	Nott'm Forest	14	8	4	2	+13	+5.6	28
4	Chelsea	14	8	4	2	+12	+14.5	28
5	Aston Villa	15	7	7	1	+7	+11.7	28
6	Man City	14	8	3	3	+11	+11.3	27
7	Brighton	14	6	6	2	+5	+4.6	24
8	Brentford	15	7	3	5	+3	+3.7	24
9	Newcastle	13	7	2	4	+7	+6.4	23
10	Fulham	15	6	5	4	+1	+2.1	23
11	Bournemouth	14	6	3	5	+6	+8.8	21
12	Man United	15	6	2	7	-4	-0.6	20
13	Everton	15	4	7	4	+3	+1.4	19
14	Tottenham	15	5	3	7	+4	-0.6	18
15	Crystal Palace	15	4	5	6	-5	+6.9	17
16	West Ham	15	5	2	8	-10	-7.2	17
17	Wolves	15	4	2	9	-8	-6.1	14
18	Leicester	15	2	3	10	-19	-11.6	9
19	Ipswich	15	1	4	10	-22	-12.0	7
20	Southampton	14	1	1	12	-29	-22.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	10	5	0	+22	+21.0	35
2	Arsenal	15	7	6	2	+12	+5.8	27
3	Nott'm Forest	15	8	2	5	+1	-2.7	26
4	Newcastle	15	7	3	5	+2	+4.3	24
5	Bournemouth	15	6	5	4	+6	+5.5	23
6	Brighton	15	6	5	4	+1	-1.8	23
7	Crystal Palace	13	6	4	3	+8	+1.3	22
8	Fulham	15	6	4	5	+3	+3.2	22
9	Chelsea	15	6	3	6	+4	+2.4	21
10	Man City	15	6	3	6	+4	+1.0	21
11	Brentford	14	5	2	7	+2	-4.2	17
12	Man United	14	4	5	5	+1	-5.8	17
13	West Ham	15	4	5	6	-7	-2.6	17
14	Aston Villa	14	5	2	7	-11	-10.1	17
15	Tottenham	14	5	1	8	+8	-0.5	16
16	Everton	14	3	6	5	-7	-4.9	15
17	Wolves	15	4	3	8	-9	-8.7	15
18	Ipswich	14	2	4	8	-12	-19.2	10
19	Leicester	14	2	2	10	-21	-17.2	8
20	Southampton	15	1	2	12	-20	-19.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.