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Premiership
Referee: M MacDermid
Kilmarnock
T T T U T
2–0
Full-time
Motherwell
T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Kilmarnock Motherwell
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,2
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
2,2
2,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,8
This season — Premiership · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 31%
26%
35%
Points per game
1,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
45%
74%
Both score Ø 57%
48%
65%
Average goals
2,8
2,9
Scored
1,1
1,2
Conceded
1,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,5
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%
17 Shots 4
10 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 8
7 Corners 2
2 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Kilmarnock 10. · Motherwell 8. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Celtic 31 25 3 3 +72 78
2 Rangers 31 20 5 6 +35 65
3 Hibernian 31 12 11 8 +7 47
4 Aberdeen 31 13 7 11 -5 46
5 Dundee United 31 12 8 11 -1 44
6 Hearts 31 11 6 14 +0 39
7 St Mirren 31 11 5 15 -8 38
8 Motherwell 31 11 5 15 -17 38
9 Ross County 31 9 8 14 -21 35
10 Kilmarnock 31 8 8 15 -18 32
11 Dundee 31 8 7 16 -19 31
12 ST Johnstone 31 7 5 19 -25 26

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

8. Jan -25 Kilmarnock – Motherwell 0–0 20. Dec -24 Motherwell – Kilmarnock 1–1 3. Feb -24 Motherwell – Kilmarnock 1–1 4. Nov -23 Kilmarnock – Motherwell 1–0 26. Aug -23 Motherwell – Kilmarnock 2–1

Match report

Kilmarnock Motherwell
12′
🟨 Stephen O'Donnell
Bradley Lyons 🟨
16′
1–0 F. Murray ⚽
22′
25′
ℹ️ Kofi Balmer
VAR: Card upgrade
26′
🟥 Kofi Balmer
Half-time 2–0
2–0 J. Wright ⚽
D. Armstrong
53′
54′
🔁 Jair Tavares
↦ K. Andrews
C. Ramsay 🔁
↦ L. Mayo
59′
63′
🟨 Dominic Thompson
63′
🟥 Dominic Thompson
VAR: Red card cancelled
D. Watson 🔁
↦ R. McKenzie
68′
70′
🔁 W. Dickson
↦ D. Thompson
70′
🔁 T. Maswanhise
↦ L. Armstrong
71′
🟨 Callum Slattery
77′
🔁 J. Koutroumbis
↦ C. Slattery
Bobby Wales 🟨
81′
R. Deas 🔁
↦ S. Findlay
88′
M. Kennedy 🔁
↦ F. Murray
88′
L. Donnelly 🔁
↦ B. Lyons
88′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Kilmarnock

4-4-2
1 K. O'Hara G
5 L. Mayo D
4 J. Wright D
17 S. Findlay D
3 C. Ndaba D
11 D. Armstrong M
7 R. McKenzie M
8 B. Lyons M
24 B. Wales M
15 F. Murray F
19 B. Anderson F
Bench (9)
21 C. Ramsay
12 D. Watson
6 R. Deas
10 M. Kennedy
22 L. Donnelly
9 K. Vassell
23 M. Watkins
20 R. McCrorie
31 L. Polworth

Coach: D. McInnes

Motherwell

3-4-2-1
88 E. Balcombe G
2 S. O'Donnell D
5 K. Balmer D
15 D. Casey D
7 T. Sparrow M
11 A. Halliday M
54 K. Andrews M
56 D. Thompson M
38 L. Miller F
8 C. Slattery F
59 L. Armstrong F
Bench (9)
90 Jair Tavares
58 W. Dickson
55 T. Maswanhise
22 J. Koutroumbis
52 T. Watt
6 D. Zdravkovski
13 A. Oxborough
12 H. Paton
57 L. Plange

Coach: M. Wimmer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,77
🔒
U
3,53
🔒
B
4,56
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
2,02
🔒
U2,5 ✓
1,77
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M MacDermid · 67 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.