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Conference League
Referee: E Eskås
Aston Villa
S U S T U
2–1
Full-time
Lille
U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
3,8
3,0
Scored
1,8
2,0
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 65%
70%
60%
Points per game
2,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
70%
40%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,1
2,2
Scored
2,4
1,7
Conceded
0,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,15 xG 1,51
41% Possession 59%
12 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 7
5 Blocked shots 2
6 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 3
0 Offside 6
13 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Aston Villa Lille
1–0 O. Watkins ⚽
J. McGinn
13′
Half-time 1–0
Douglas Luiz 🟨
49′
2–0 J. McGinn ⚽
L. Bailey
56′
60′
🔁 Y. Yazıcı
↦ E. Zhegrova
65′
ℹ️ Gabriel Gudmundsson
VAR: Goal cancelled
N. Zaniolo 🔁
↦ M. Rogers
66′
Álex Moreno 🔁
↦ L. Digne
74′
M. Diaby 🔁
↦ L. Bailey
74′
Youri Tielemans 🟨
77′
78′
🔁 R. Cabella
↦ H. Haraldsson
78′
🔁 A. Gomes
↦ G. Gudmundsson
T. Iroegbunam 🔁
↦ Y. Tielemans
82′
J. Durán 🔁
↦ O. Watkins
82′
84′
⚽ B. Diakité 2–1
R. Cabella
87′
🔁 Alexsandro Ribeiro
↦ B. Diakité
Emiliano Martínez 🟨
94′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-4-1-1
1 E. Martínez G
4 E. Konsa D
3 Diego Carlos D
14 Pau Torres D
12 L. Digne D
31 L. Bailey M
8 Y. Tielemans M
6 Douglas Luiz M
27 M. Rogers M
7 J. McGinn F
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (9)
22 N. Zaniolo
15 Álex Moreno
19 M. Diaby
47 T. Iroegbunam
24 J. Durán
71 O. Kellyman
29 K. Kesler-Hayden
18 J. Gauci
25 R. Olsen

Coach: Unai Emery

Lille

4-2-3-1
30 L. Chevalier G
22 Tiago Santos D
15 L. Yoro D
18 B. Diakité D
31 Ismaily D
21 B. André M
6 N. Bentaleb M
23 E. Zhegrova M
7 H. Haraldsson M
5 G. Gudmundsson M
9 J. David F
Bench (11)
12 Y. Yazıcı
10 R. Cabella
8 A. Gomes
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro
36 O. Touré
38 I. Ferrah
33 A. Bouaddi
40 T. Negrel
1 V. Mannone
19 Tiago Morais
17 Ivan Cavaleiro

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

E Eskås · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
19,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.