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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Paris SG

U S S S S

4–2

Full-time

Lyon

U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,3

2,0

Scored

3,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 61%

83%

39%

Points per game

2,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

65%

52%

Both score Ø 41%

39%

43%

Average goals

3,2

2,4

Scored

2,6

1,5

Conceded

0,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

70% Possession 30%

16 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Lyon 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	23	19	1	3	+44	58
2	Marseille	24	14	7	3	+12	49
3	Rennes	24	12	5	7	+7	41
4	Lille	24	12	4	8	+4	40
5	Montpellier	24	10	7	7	+5	37
6	Strasbourg	24	11	3	10	+3	36
7	Monaco	24	10	5	9	+0	35
8	Bordeaux	24	9	7	8	+7	34
9	Lyon	23	9	6	8	+14	33
10	Reims	24	8	9	7	+3	33
11	Nice	24	9	6	9	+0	33
12	Nantes	24	10	3	11	-2	33
13	Brest	24	7	9	8	-2	30
14	Angers	24	8	6	10	-8	30
15	St Etienne	24	8	4	12	-13	28
16	Metz	24	6	9	9	-8	27
17	Dijon	24	6	7	11	-7	25
18	Nimes	24	6	6	12	-13	24
19	Amiens	24	4	8	12	-18	20
20	Toulouse	24	3	4	17	-28	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Montpellier	13	9	2	2	+13	29
2	Lille	12	9	2	1	+12	29
3	Paris SG	11	9	1	1	+26	28
4	Marseille	12	8	3	1	+9	27
5	Nice	13	7	3	3	+7	24
6	Strasbourg	12	7	2	3	+8	23
7	Rennes	12	7	2	3	+5	23
8	Monaco	12	7	1	4	+6	22
9	Brest	12	5	6	1	+10	21
10	Angers	13	6	3	4	+4	21
11	Dijon	12	5	5	2	+4	20
12	Nantes	12	6	1	5	+1	19
13	Nimes	12	5	2	5	+2	17
14	Reims	12	3	7	2	+3	16
15	Metz	12	4	4	4	+2	16
16	St Etienne	12	4	4	4	-3	16
17	Lyon	11	4	3	4	+8	15
18	Bordeaux	11	4	3	4	+7	15
19	Amiens	12	3	4	5	-5	13
20	Toulouse	11	3	0	8	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	0	2	+18	30
2	Marseille	12	6	4	2	+3	22
3	Bordeaux	13	5	4	4	+0	19
4	Lyon	12	5	3	4	+6	18
5	Rennes	12	5	3	4	+2	18
6	Reims	12	5	2	5	+0	17
7	Nantes	12	4	2	6	-3	14
8	Strasbourg	12	4	1	7	-5	13
9	Monaco	12	3	4	5	-6	13
10	St Etienne	12	4	0	8	-10	12
11	Lille	12	3	2	7	-8	11
12	Metz	12	2	5	5	-10	11
13	Nice	11	2	3	6	-7	9
14	Brest	12	2	3	7	-12	9
15	Angers	11	2	3	6	-12	9
16	Montpellier	11	1	5	5	-8	8
17	Amiens	12	1	4	7	-13	7
18	Nimes	12	1	4	7	-15	7
19	Dijon	12	1	2	9	-11	5
20	Toulouse	13	0	4	9	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.