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Ligue 1
Referee: Clement Turpin
Lyon
S S S U S
2–1
Full-time
Paris SG
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 83%
83%
83%
Points per game
2,7
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,5
4,2
Scored
1,8
3,3
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+2,5
This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 74%
62%
86%
Points per game
2,1
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
67%
76%
Both score Ø 52%
52%
52%
Average goals
3,3
3,9
Scored
2,3
3,2
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+2,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

37% Possession 63%
11 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 7
1 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Lyon 4. · Paris SG 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 21 18 2 1 +52 56
2 Marseille 22 14 5 3 +23 47
3 Monaco 22 14 4 4 +29 46
4 Lyon 21 13 6 2 +28 45
5 Nantes 22 10 4 8 -2 34
6 Nice 22 10 4 8 -3 34
7 Montpellier 22 7 10 5 +5 31
8 Rennes 22 9 4 9 -3 31
9 Guingamp 22 8 5 9 -5 29
10 Strasbourg 22 7 6 9 -10 27
11 Caen 22 8 3 11 -10 27
12 Bordeaux 22 7 5 10 -7 26
13 Amiens 22 7 4 11 -4 25
14 Dijon 22 7 4 11 -14 25
15 Troyes 22 7 3 12 -9 24
16 St Etienne 22 6 5 11 -17 23
17 Angers 22 4 10 8 -7 22
18 Lille 22 6 4 12 -14 22
19 Toulouse 22 5 5 12 -12 20
20 Metz 22 4 3 15 -20 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lyon Paris SG
1–0 N. Fekir
2′
36′
🔁 J. Draxler
↦ K. Mbappé
Half-time 1–1
48′
L. Kurzawa 1–1
Dani Alves
53′
🟨 Giovani Lo Celso
57′
🟥 Dani Alves
Ferland Mendy 🟨
60′
61′
🔁 T. Meunier
↦ Á. Di María
M. Depay 🔁
↦ H. Aouar
69′
77′
🟨 Marco Verratti
B. Traoré 🔁
↦ M. Díaz
77′
80′
🟨 Edinson Cavani
87′
🔁 J. Pastore
↦ M. Verratti
Memphis Depay 🟨
90′
2–1 M. Depay
N. Fekir
94′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Lyon

4-3-3
1 Anthony Lopes G
15 J. Morel D
6 Marcelo D
4 Rafael D
22 F. Mendy D
28 T. NDombèlé M
29 L. Tousart M
8 H. Aouar M
9 M. Díaz F
18 N. Fekir M
27 M. Cornet F
Bench (7)
11 M. Depay
10 B. Traoré
5 M. Diakhaby
12 J. Ferri
20 Fernando Marçal
23 K. Tete
30 M. Gorgelin

Coach: B. Génésio

Paris SG

4-3-3
16 A. Areola G
32 Dani Alves D
2 Thiago Silva D
20 L. Kurzawa D
5 Marquinhos D
11 Á. Di María F
6 M. Verratti M
25 A. Rabiot M
18 G. Lo Celso M
9 E. Cavani F
29 K. Mbappé F
Bench (7)
23 J. Draxler
12 T. Meunier
27 J. Pastore
1 K. Trapp
3 P. Kimpembe
17 Yuri
24 C. Nkunku

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Clement Turpin · 69 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.