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Coppa Italia

Referee: K Bonacina

Milan

S U U S S

6–1

Full-time

Sassuolo

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Sassuolo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

2,2

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

70% Possession 30%

15 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 0

3 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cesena	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Empoli	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Cagliari	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Sassuolo	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+5	4
7	Genoa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Monza	3	1	1	1	-2	4
9	Bologna	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Pisa	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Torino	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Brescia	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Mantova	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Carrarese	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Avellino	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Palermo	2	1	0	1	-4	3
18	Sampdoria	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Como	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Bari	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Modena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Cremonese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	Salernitana	2	0	1	1	-2	1
26	Cittadella	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Verona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Catania	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Torres	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Parma	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Reggiana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Padova	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Juve Stabia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
37	Frosinone	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Cagliari	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+5	4
4	Monza	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Genoa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Bologna	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Empoli	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Brescia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Cesena	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Avellino	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Torino	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Carrarese	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Cremonese	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Verona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Torres	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Parma	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Frosinone	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cesena	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Pisa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Empoli	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Mantova	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Palermo	2	1	0	1	-4	3
7	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Como	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Bari	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Modena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Cittadella	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Catania	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Cremonese	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Reggiana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Salernitana	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Carrarese	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Brescia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Padova	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Juve Stabia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
25	Avellino	1	0	0	1	-4	0
26	Monza	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.