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Champions League
Referee: F Letexier
Lazio
S S U T S
1–0
Full-time
Bayern Munich
T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,2
2,8
Scored
1,3
1,7
Conceded
0,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,3
3,0
Scored
1,2
2,0
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,63 xG 1,10
39% Possession 61%
11 Shots 17
4 Shots on target 0
5 Blocked shots 7
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 5
0 Offside 2
7 Free kicks against 8
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Lazio Bayern Munich
Half-time 0–0
M. Lazzari 🔁
↦ E. Hysaj
60′
67′
🟥 Dayot Upamecano
68′
🟨 Joshua Kimmich
1–0 C. Immobile ⚽
69′
73′
🔁 M. de Ligt
↦ L. Goretzka
V. Castellanos 🔁
↦ C. Immobile
74′
Pedro 🔁
↦ G. Isaksen
74′
D. Kamada 🔁
↦ Luis Alberto
81′
Patric 🔁
↦ Mario Gila
81′
81′
🔁 M. Tel
↦ L. Sané
81′
🔁 E. Choupo-Moting
↦ T. Müller
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Lazio

4-3-3
94 I. Provedel G
77 A. Marušić D
34 Mario Gila D
13 A. Romagnoli D
23 E. Hysaj D
8 M. Guendouzi M
32 D. Cataldi M
10 Luis Alberto M
18 G. Isaksen F
17 C. Immobile F
7 Felipe Anderson F
Bench (9)
29 M. Lazzari
19 V. Castellanos
9 Pedro
6 D. Kamada
4 Patric
15 N. Casale
33 L. Sepe
53 F. Magro
56 L. Napolitano

Coach: M. Sarri

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
40 N. Mazraoui D
2 D. Upamecano D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
22 Raphaël Guerreiro D
6 J. Kimmich M
8 L. Goretzka M
10 L. Sané M
25 T. Müller M
42 J. Musiala M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (9)
4 M. de Ligt
39 M. Tel
13 E. Choupo-Moting
17 Bryan Zaragoza
45 A. Pavlović
15 E. Dier
48 M. Schmitt
26 S. Ulreich
23 S. Boey

Coach: T. Tuchel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.