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Premier League
Referee: J Brooks
Man City
S S S S S
3–1
Full-time
West Ham
U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City West Ham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
100%
17%
Points per game
3,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
3,2
4,0
Scored
3,0
1,3
Conceded
0,2
2,7
Goal diff per game
+2,8
-1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 37/37 matches
Win Ø 56%
73%
38%
Points per game
2,4
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 65%
62%
68%
Both score Ø 64%
59%
68%
Average goals
3,4
3,5
Scored
2,5
1,6
Conceded
0,9
1,9
Goal diff per game
+1,6
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,04 xG 0,36
71% Possession 29%
28 Shots 3
12 Shots on target 2
7 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 9
11 Corners 2
3 Offside 0
3 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Man City 1. · West Ham 9.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Man City 37 27 7 3 +60 +44.5 88
2 Arsenal 37 27 5 5 +61 +46.9 86
3 Liverpool 37 23 10 4 +43 +38.9 79
4 Aston Villa 37 20 8 9 +20 +5.5 68
5 Tottenham 37 19 6 12 +10 +2.2 63
6 Chelsea 37 17 9 11 +13 +17.2 60
7 Newcastle 37 17 6 14 +21 +13.0 57
8 Man United 37 17 6 14 -3 -12.8 57
9 West Ham 37 14 10 13 -12 -17.6 52
10 Brighton 37 12 12 13 -5 +1.0 48
11 Everton 37 13 9 15 -10 +1.1 48
12 Bournemouth 37 13 9 15 -12 -3.2 48
13 Crystal Palace 37 12 10 15 -6 -5.1 46
14 Wolves 37 13 7 17 -13 -17.2 46
15 Fulham 37 12 8 17 -8 -11.6 44
16 Brentford 37 10 9 18 -7 +5.4 39
17 Nott'm Forest 37 8 9 20 -19 -4.2 33
18 Luton 37 6 8 23 -31 -37.5 26
19 Burnley 37 5 9 23 -36 -30.5 24
20 Sheffield United 37 3 7 27 -66 -36.1 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Man City West Ham
1–0 P. Foden
Bernardo Silva
2′
2–0 P. Foden
J. Doku
18′
42′
M. Kudus 2–1
Half-time 3–1
3–1 Rodri
Bernardo Silva
59′
N. Aké 🔁
↦ M. Akanji
71′
71′
🔁 E. Álvarez
↦ Emerson
76′
🟨 Edson Álvarez
81′
🔁 G. Earthy
↦ M. Antonio
86′
🔁 D. Ings
↦ Lucas Paquetá
89′
ℹ️ Tomáš Souček
VAR: Goal cancelled
M. Kovačić 🔁
↦ P. Foden
91′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Man City

4-1-4-1
18 S. Ortega G
2 K. Walker D
3 Rúben Dias D
25 M. Akanji D
24 J. Gvardiol D
16 Rodri M
20 Bernardo Silva M
17 K. De Bruyne M
47 P. Foden M
11 J. Doku M
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (9)
6 N. Aké
8 M. Kovačić
27 Matheus Nunes
82 R. Lewis
10 J. Grealish
5 J. Stones
52 O. Bobb
33 S. Carson
19 J. Álvarez

Coach: Pep Guardiola

West Ham

3-4-3
23 A. Areola G
15 K. Mavropanos D
4 K. Zouma D
3 A. Cresswell D
5 V. Coufal M
28 T. Souček M
7 J. Ward-Prowse M
33 Emerson M
14 M. Kudus F
9 M. Antonio F
10 Lucas Paquetá F
Bench (9)
19 E. Álvarez
40 G. Earthy
18 D. Ings
2 B. Johnson
42 K. Casey
45 D. Mubama
1 Ł. Fabiański
21 A. Ogbonna
17 M. Cornet

Coach: D. Moyes

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,10
U
11,72
B
21,81
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,20
U2,5
4,45
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Brooks · 175 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.