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Serie A

Referee: D Orsato

Milan

U S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Atalanta

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

1,7

4,0

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

0,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 56%

67%

44%

Points per game

2,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

47%

64%

Both score Ø 60%

53%

67%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,8

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

12 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 1. · Atalanta 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	36	24	8	4	+33	80
2	Inter	36	23	9	4	+47	78
3	Napoli	37	23	7	7	+40	76
4	Juventus	36	20	9	7	+22	69
5	Lazio	36	18	8	10	+19	62
6	Roma	37	17	9	11	+13	60
7	Atalanta	36	16	11	9	+20	59
8	Fiorentina	36	18	5	13	+9	59
9	Verona	37	14	10	13	+6	52
10	Torino	37	13	11	13	+8	50
11	Sassuolo	37	13	11	13	+1	50
12	Udinese	37	10	14	13	-1	44
13	Bologna	37	11	10	16	-12	43
14	Empoli	37	9	11	17	-21	38
15	Spezia	37	10	6	21	-27	36
16	Sampdoria	36	9	6	21	-17	33
17	Salernitana	37	7	10	20	-41	31
18	Cagliari	36	6	11	19	-32	29
19	Genoa	37	4	16	17	-32	28
20	Venezia	37	6	8	23	-35	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	18	13	3	2	+29	42
2	Fiorentina	18	12	2	4	+16	38
3	Milan	18	11	4	3	+14	37
4	Napoli	19	11	3	5	+21	36
5	Roma	19	10	6	3	+10	36
6	Lazio	18	10	5	3	+17	35
7	Juventus	18	10	4	4	+11	34
8	Verona	19	9	3	7	+9	30
9	Torino	18	8	5	5	+11	29
10	Bologna	19	8	4	7	+1	28
11	Udinese	19	6	7	6	+2	25
12	Sassuolo	18	6	6	6	+0	24
13	Atalanta	18	4	8	6	+3	20
14	Sampdoria	18	5	3	10	-6	18
15	Spezia	18	5	3	10	-6	18
16	Genoa	18	3	8	7	-10	17
17	Empoli	19	4	5	10	-16	17
18	Cagliari	18	3	6	9	-11	15
19	Salernitana	18	3	6	9	-18	15
20	Venezia	18	3	4	11	-17	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	18	13	4	1	+19	43
2	Napoli	18	12	4	2	+19	40
3	Atalanta	18	12	3	3	+17	39
4	Inter	18	10	6	2	+18	36
5	Juventus	18	10	5	3	+11	35
6	Lazio	18	8	3	7	+2	27
7	Sassuolo	19	7	5	7	+1	26
8	Roma	18	7	3	8	+3	24
9	Verona	18	5	7	6	-3	22
10	Torino	19	5	6	8	-3	21
11	Empoli	18	5	6	7	-5	21
12	Fiorentina	18	6	3	9	-7	21
13	Udinese	18	4	7	7	-3	19
14	Spezia	19	5	3	11	-21	18
15	Salernitana	19	4	4	11	-23	16
16	Sampdoria	18	4	3	11	-11	15
17	Bologna	18	3	6	9	-13	15
18	Cagliari	18	3	5	10	-21	14
19	Venezia	19	3	4	12	-18	13
20	Genoa	19	1	8	10	-22	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.