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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Watford

T T T T U

1–5

Full-time

Leicester

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 36/35 matches

Win Ø 26%

17%

34%

Points per game

0,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

53%

63%

Both score Ø 57%

47%

66%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

0,9

1,5

Conceded

1,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

41% Possession 59%

13 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

4 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 19. · Leicester 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	36	28	5	3	+72	89
2	Liverpool	36	26	8	2	+65	86
3	Chelsea	36	20	10	6	+42	70
4	Tottenham	37	21	5	11	+24	68
5	Arsenal	36	21	3	12	+11	66
6	Man United	37	16	10	11	+1	58
7	West Ham	36	16	7	13	+11	55
8	Wolves	36	15	5	16	-3	50
9	Brighton	36	11	14	11	-4	47
10	Leicester	35	12	9	14	-4	45
11	Crystal Palace	35	10	14	11	+4	44
12	Aston Villa	35	13	4	18	-1	43
13	Brentford	36	12	7	17	-8	43
14	Newcastle	36	11	10	15	-21	43
15	Southampton	36	9	13	14	-20	40
16	Everton	35	10	6	19	-19	36
17	Burnley	36	7	13	16	-18	34
18	Leeds	36	8	10	18	-38	34
19	Watford	36	6	5	25	-38	23
20	Norwich	36	5	6	25	-56	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	4	0	+38	46
2	Man City	18	14	2	2	+42	44
3	Tottenham	19	13	1	5	+19	40
4	Arsenal	18	12	2	4	+14	38
5	Man United	19	10	5	4	+10	35
6	Leicester	18	9	4	5	+8	31
7	West Ham	18	9	4	5	+7	31
8	Chelsea	17	8	6	3	+14	30
9	Newcastle	18	7	6	5	-3	27
10	Crystal Palace	18	6	8	4	+9	26
11	Everton	17	8	2	7	+2	26
12	Southampton	18	6	7	5	+0	25
13	Brentford	18	7	3	8	+2	24
14	Wolves	18	7	2	9	-5	23
15	Aston Villa	17	6	3	8	+0	21
16	Burnley	18	5	6	7	-6	21
17	Brighton	18	4	7	7	-6	19
18	Leeds	18	4	5	9	-19	17
19	Norwich	18	3	3	12	-26	12
20	Watford	18	2	2	14	-25	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	14	3	1	+30	45
2	Chelsea	19	12	4	3	+28	40
3	Liverpool	18	12	4	2	+27	40
4	Tottenham	18	8	4	6	+5	28
5	Brighton	18	7	7	4	+2	28
6	Arsenal	18	9	1	8	-3	28
7	Wolves	18	8	3	7	+2	27
8	West Ham	18	7	3	8	+4	24
9	Man United	18	6	5	7	-9	23
10	Aston Villa	18	7	1	10	-1	22
11	Brentford	18	5	4	9	-10	19
12	Crystal Palace	17	4	6	7	-5	18
13	Leeds	18	4	5	9	-19	17
14	Newcastle	18	4	4	10	-18	16
15	Watford	18	4	3	11	-13	15
16	Southampton	18	3	6	9	-20	15
17	Leicester	17	3	5	9	-12	14
18	Burnley	18	2	7	9	-12	13
19	Everton	18	2	4	12	-21	10
20	Norwich	18	2	3	13	-30	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.