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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Milan

S S S U U

2–0

Full-time

Genoa

U U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

0,8

1,2

Scored

0,7

0,3

Conceded

0,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 35%

63%

Points per game

2,1

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

47%

44%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

10 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 1

3 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Genoa 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	32	20	9	3	+43	69
2	Milan	32	20	8	4	+27	68
3	Napoli	32	20	6	6	+32	66
4	Juventus	32	18	8	6	+21	62
5	Roma	32	17	6	9	+17	57
6	Lazio	32	16	7	9	+17	55
7	Fiorentina	31	16	5	10	+12	53
8	Atalanta	31	14	9	8	+17	51
9	Sassuolo	32	12	10	10	+6	46
10	Verona	32	12	9	11	+7	45
11	Torino	31	10	9	12	+5	39
12	Bologna	31	10	7	14	-10	37
13	Udinese	30	8	12	10	-5	36
14	Empoli	32	8	10	14	-15	34
15	Spezia	33	9	6	18	-24	33
16	Sampdoria	32	8	5	19	-15	29
17	Cagliari	32	5	10	17	-31	25
18	Genoa	32	2	16	14	-28	22
19	Venezia	31	5	7	19	-31	22
20	Salernitana	30	3	7	20	-45	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	16	11	3	2	+25	36
2	Roma	17	10	4	3	+10	34
3	Fiorentina	15	10	2	3	+17	32
4	Lazio	15	9	4	2	+16	31
5	Milan	16	9	4	3	+11	31
6	Juventus	16	9	3	4	+10	30
7	Napoli	16	9	2	5	+13	29
8	Verona	16	9	2	5	+12	29
9	Torino	16	7	5	4	+11	26
10	Bologna	16	7	3	6	+2	24
11	Sassuolo	16	6	5	5	+1	23
12	Udinese	15	5	7	3	+2	22
13	Atalanta	15	4	6	5	+4	18
14	Spezia	16	5	3	8	-3	18
15	Sampdoria	16	4	3	9	-6	15
16	Empoli	16	3	4	9	-15	13
17	Cagliari	16	2	6	8	-11	12
18	Genoa	16	1	8	7	-12	11
19	Venezia	16	2	4	10	-16	10
20	Salernitana	15	1	5	9	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	16	11	4	1	+19	37
2	Milan	16	11	4	1	+16	37
3	Inter	16	9	6	1	+18	33
4	Atalanta	16	10	3	3	+13	33
5	Juventus	16	9	5	2	+11	32
6	Lazio	17	7	3	7	+1	24
7	Roma	15	7	2	6	+7	23
8	Sassuolo	16	6	5	5	+5	23
9	Empoli	16	5	6	5	+0	21
10	Fiorentina	16	6	3	7	-5	21
11	Verona	16	3	7	6	-5	16
12	Spezia	17	4	3	10	-21	15
13	Udinese	15	3	5	7	-7	14
14	Sampdoria	16	4	2	10	-9	14
15	Torino	15	3	4	8	-6	13
16	Bologna	15	3	4	8	-12	13
17	Cagliari	16	3	4	9	-20	13
18	Venezia	15	3	3	9	-15	12
19	Genoa	16	1	8	7	-16	11
20	Salernitana	15	2	2	11	-25	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.