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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Napoli

S T S S S

2–3

Full-time

Fiorentina

T U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 31/30 matches

Win Ø 58%

65%

50%

Points per game

2,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

48%

63%

Both score Ø 53%

48%

57%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,8

1,6

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 2

5 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 17

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 3. · Fiorentina 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	31	20	7	4	+27	67
2	Inter	31	19	9	3	+41	66
3	Napoli	31	20	6	5	+33	66
4	Juventus	32	18	8	6	+21	62
5	Lazio	32	16	7	9	+17	55
6	Roma	31	16	6	9	+16	54
7	Atalanta	30	14	9	7	+18	51
8	Fiorentina	30	15	5	10	+11	50
9	Verona	32	12	9	11	+7	45
10	Sassuolo	31	11	10	10	+5	43
11	Torino	30	10	8	12	+5	38
12	Bologna	30	9	7	14	-12	34
13	Empoli	32	8	10	14	-15	34
14	Udinese	29	7	12	10	-6	33
15	Spezia	32	9	6	17	-22	33
16	Sampdoria	31	8	5	18	-13	29
17	Cagliari	32	5	10	17	-31	25
18	Genoa	32	2	16	14	-28	22
19	Venezia	30	5	7	18	-30	22
20	Salernitana	29	3	7	19	-44	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	16	11	3	2	+25	36
2	Fiorentina	15	10	2	3	+17	32
3	Lazio	15	9	4	2	+16	31
4	Milan	16	9	4	3	+11	31
5	Roma	16	9	4	3	+9	31
6	Juventus	16	9	3	4	+10	30
7	Napoli	15	9	2	4	+14	29
8	Verona	16	9	2	5	+12	29
9	Torino	15	7	4	4	+11	25
10	Udinese	15	5	7	3	+2	22
11	Bologna	15	6	3	6	+0	21
12	Sassuolo	15	5	5	5	+0	20
13	Atalanta	15	4	6	5	+4	18
14	Spezia	15	5	3	7	-1	18
15	Sampdoria	16	4	3	9	-6	15
16	Empoli	16	3	4	9	-15	13
17	Cagliari	16	2	6	8	-11	12
18	Genoa	16	1	8	7	-12	11
19	Venezia	15	2	4	9	-15	10
20	Salernitana	15	1	5	9	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	16	11	4	1	+19	37
2	Milan	15	11	3	1	+16	36
3	Atalanta	15	10	3	2	+14	33
4	Juventus	16	9	5	2	+11	32
5	Inter	15	8	6	1	+16	30
6	Lazio	17	7	3	7	+1	24
7	Roma	15	7	2	6	+7	23
8	Sassuolo	16	6	5	5	+5	23
9	Empoli	16	5	6	5	+0	21
10	Fiorentina	15	5	3	7	-6	18
11	Verona	16	3	7	6	-5	16
12	Spezia	17	4	3	10	-21	15
13	Sampdoria	15	4	2	9	-7	14
14	Torino	15	3	4	8	-6	13
15	Bologna	15	3	4	8	-12	13
16	Cagliari	16	3	4	9	-20	13
17	Venezia	15	3	3	9	-15	12
18	Udinese	14	2	5	7	-8	11
19	Genoa	16	1	8	7	-16	11
20	Salernitana	14	2	2	10	-24	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.