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Serie A

Referee: D Doveri

Genoa

T U T S T

2–1

Full-time

Lecce

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,3

This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 21%

21%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

76%

73%

Both score Ø 66%

67%

64%

Average goals

3,1

3,5

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,9

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

8 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 8

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genoa 17. · Lecce 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	33	24	5	4	+35	77
2	Atalanta	34	21	8	5	+50	71
3	Inter	33	21	8	4	+38	71
4	Lazio	33	21	6	6	+33	69
5	Roma	33	17	6	10	+17	57
6	Milan	34	16	8	10	+10	56
7	Napoli	33	15	8	10	+9	53
8	Sassuolo	34	13	9	12	+5	48
9	Verona	34	11	12	11	+0	45
10	Bologna	34	11	10	13	-9	43
11	Cagliari	34	10	12	12	-1	42
12	Sampdoria	34	12	5	17	-11	41
13	Parma	34	11	7	16	-3	40
14	Fiorentina	33	9	12	12	-4	39
15	Torino	33	11	4	18	-19	37
16	Udinese	33	9	9	15	-15	36
17	Genoa	33	7	9	17	-23	30
18	Lecce	33	7	8	18	-33	29
19	Brescia	33	5	6	22	-40	21
20	Spal	33	5	4	24	-39	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	14	2	0	+28	44
2	Lazio	17	12	3	2	+26	39
3	Atalanta	17	11	2	4	+26	35
4	Inter	17	10	5	2	+21	35
5	Roma	17	9	3	5	+8	30
6	Milan	17	8	5	4	+8	29
7	Verona	17	8	5	4	+5	29
8	Sassuolo	16	7	3	6	+8	24
9	Napoli	16	7	3	6	+2	24
10	Torino	17	7	3	7	-6	24
11	Cagliari	17	6	4	7	+3	22
12	Sampdoria	17	6	4	7	-1	22
13	Udinese	17	5	6	6	-5	21
14	Parma	17	6	2	9	+2	20
15	Bologna	17	4	7	6	-5	19
16	Fiorentina	17	3	8	6	-6	17
17	Genoa	16	5	1	10	-8	16
18	Lecce	17	3	5	9	-12	14
19	Brescia	16	2	4	10	-13	10
20	Spal	16	2	3	11	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	17	10	6	1	+24	36
2	Inter	16	11	3	2	+17	36
3	Juventus	17	10	3	4	+7	33
4	Lazio	16	9	3	4	+7	30
5	Napoli	17	8	5	4	+7	29
6	Roma	16	8	3	5	+9	27
7	Milan	17	8	3	6	+2	27
8	Sassuolo	18	6	6	6	-3	24
9	Bologna	17	7	3	7	-4	24
10	Fiorentina	16	6	4	6	+2	22
11	Cagliari	17	4	8	5	-4	20
12	Parma	17	5	5	7	-5	20
13	Sampdoria	17	6	1	10	-10	19
14	Verona	17	3	7	7	-5	16
15	Udinese	16	4	3	9	-10	15
16	Lecce	16	4	3	9	-21	15
17	Genoa	17	2	8	7	-15	14
18	Torino	16	4	1	11	-13	13
19	Brescia	17	3	2	12	-27	11
20	Spal	17	3	1	13	-22	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.