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Champions League
Referee: D Massa
Benfica
S T S T S
4–2
Full-time
Real Madrid
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,8
4,0
Scored
1,8
3,2
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 11/7 matches
Win Ø 58%
45%
71%
Points per game
1,5
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
18%
71%
Both score Ø 33%
9%
57%
Average goals
1,9
3,9
Scored
1,0
2,7
Conceded
0,9
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+1,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

3,14 xG 1,50
33% Possession 67%
22 Shots 16
12 Shots on target 6
7 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 7
6 Corners 5
1 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 7
0 Red cards 2

Match report

Benfica Real Madrid
3′
🟨 Aurélien Tchouaméni
Leandro Barreiro 🟨
10′
Gianluca Prestianni ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
17′
30′
⚽ K. Mbappe 0–1
R. Asencio
1–1 A. Schjelderup ⚽
V. Pavlidis
36′
2–1 V. Pavlidis ⚽
45′
Half-time 2–1
49′
🟨 Raúl Asencio
3–1 A. Schjelderup ⚽
V. Pavlidis
54′
55′
🔁 E. Camavinga
↦ A. Tchouameni
55′
🔁 Rodrygo
↦ F. Mastantuono
58′
⚽ K. Mbappe 3–2
A. Guler
62′
🟨 Dean Huijsen
66′
🟨 Álvaro Carreras
79′
🔁 D. Alaba
↦ D. Huijsen
79′
🔁 B. Diaz
↦ A. Carreras
79′
🔁 J. Cestero Sancho
↦ A. Guler
E. Barrenechea 🔁
↦ G. Sudakov
83′
Samuel Dahl 🟨
85′
J. Rego 🔁
↦ G. Prestianni
87′
4–2 A. Trubin ⚽
F. Aursnes
90′
92′
🟨 Raúl Asencio
92′
🟥 Raúl Asencio
A. Silva 🔁
↦ A. Schjelderup
93′
F. Ivanovic 🔁
↦ V. Pavlidis
93′
96′
🟨 Rodrygo
96′
🟨 Rodrygo
96′
🟥 Rodrygo
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Benfica

4-2-3-1
1 A. Trubin G
17 A. Dedic D
44 T. Araujo D
30 N. Otamendi D
26 S. Dahl D
18 L. Barreiro M
8 F. Aursnes M
25 G. Prestianni M
10 G. Sudakov M
21 A. Schjelderup M
14 V. Pavlidis F
Bench (12)
50 D. Ferreira
4 A. Silva
5 E. Barrenechea
7 Bruma
9 F. Ivanovic
16 Manu
58 D. Banjaqui
62 J. Neto
64 G. Oliveira
72 Anisio
84 J. Rego
86 D. Prioste

Coach: Jose Mourinho

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
8 F. Valverde D
17 R. Asencio D
24 D. Huijsen D
18 A. Carreras D
15 A. Guler M
14 A. Tchouameni M
5 J. Bellingham M
30 F. Mastantuono F
10 K. Mbappe F
7 Vinicius Junior F
Bench (12)
13 A. Lunin
26 Fran
2 D. Carvajal
4 D. Alaba
6 E. Camavinga
11 Rodrygo
16 G. Garcia
19 D. Ceballos
20 F. Garcia
21 B. Diaz
27 D. Aguado
28 J. Cestero Sancho

Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Massa · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.