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Champions League
Referee: E Eskas
Real Madrid
S S S T S
6–1
Full-time
Monaco
T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Monaco
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,8
2,8
Scored
2,7
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,5
Scored
2,2
1,2
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,86 xG 1,41
49% Possession 51%
25 Shots 20
5 Shots on target 6
10 Blocked shots 5
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
10 Corners 6
9 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Real Madrid Monaco
1–0 K. Mbappe ⚽
F. Valverde
5′
2–0 K. Mbappe ⚽
Vinicius Junior
26′
33′
🟨 Denis Zakaria
Jude Bellingham 🟨
44′
Half-time 2–0
D. Ceballos 🔁
↦ R. Asencio
46′
3–0 F. Mastantuono ⚽
Vinicius Junior
51′
3–1 T. Kehrer ⚽
own goal
55′
61′
🔁 K. Ouattara
↦ Vanderson
61′
🔁 M. Coulibaly
↦ A. Fati
4–1 Vinicius Junior ⚽
A. Guler
63′
G. Garcia 🔁
↦ F. Mastantuono
71′
72′
⚽ J. Teze 4–2
73′
🔁 G. Ilenikhena
↦ F. Balogun
73′
🔁 A. Bamba
↦ D. Zakaria
D. Carvajal 🔁
↦ A. Guler
76′
F. Garcia 🔁
↦ E. Camavinga
76′
5–2 J. Bellingham ⚽
F. Valverde
80′
D. Mesonero 🔁
↦ F. Valverde
83′
84′
🔁 L. Michal
↦ A. Golovin
Full-time 5–2

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
8 F. Valverde D
17 R. Asencio D
24 D. Huijsen D
6 E. Camavinga D
15 A. Guler M
14 A. Tchouameni M
5 J. Bellingham M
30 F. Mastantuono F
10 K. Mbappe F
7 Vinicius Junior F
Bench (9)
13 A. Lunin
26 Fran
2 D. Carvajal
4 D. Alaba
16 G. Garcia
19 D. Ceballos
20 F. Garcia
33 P. Fortuny
47 D. Mesonero

Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa

Monaco

4-2-3-1
16 P. Kohn G
2 Vanderson D
3 E. Dier D
5 T. Kehrer D
12 Caio Henrique D
6 D. Zakaria M
4 J. Teze M
11 M. Akliouche M
31 A. Fati M
10 A. Golovin M
9 F. Balogun F
Bench (11)
40 J. Stawiecki
50 Y. Lienard
14 M. Biereth
17 S. Idumbo
19 G. Ilenikhena
20 K. Ouattara
21 L. Michal
23 A. Bamba
28 M. Coulibaly
41 I. Toure
44 S. Nibombe

Coach: Sebastien Pocognoli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

E Eskas · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
19,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.