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Copa del Rey

Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero

Burgos

S S U T S

0–2

Full-time

Valencia

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burgos Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

2,0

3,0

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+2,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,93 xG 0,80

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 1

4 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burgos 12. · Valencia 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Alaves	4	4	0	0	+13	–	12
2	Betis	4	4	0	0	+12	-0.4	12
3	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+9	-2.9	10
4	Sociedad	4	3	1	0	+6	+2.9	10
5	Albacete	4	3	1	0	+5	–	10
6	Valencia	3	3	0	0	+8	+1.0	9
7	Vallecano	4	3	0	1	+6	-1.4	9
8	Santander	3	3	0	0	+6	–	9
9	La Coruna	4	3	0	1	+6	+0.6	9
10	Elche	4	3	0	1	+5	-0.3	9
11	Cultural Leonesa	4	3	0	1	+4	-0.9	9
12	Burgos	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.3	9
13	Getafe	3	2	0	1	+10	-0.3	6
14	Palma del Rio	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
15	Eibar	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.3	6
16	Sant Just	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
17	CF Talavera	3	2	0	1	+3	–	6
18	Granada	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.9	6
19	Huesca	3	2	0	1	+3	–	6
20	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
21	Eldense	3	2	0	1	+2	–	6
22	Ourense CF	3	2	0	1	+2	–	6
23	Mallorca	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.6	6
24	Ath Bilbao	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.9	6
25	Atlético Baleares	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.5	6
26	Ath Madrid	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.1	6
27	Levante	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
28	Sp Gijon	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
29	Guadalajara	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.0	6
30	CD Sant Jordi	3	2	0	1	-2	–	6
31	Celta	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.1	5
32	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	+5	–	4
33	Puerto de Vega	3	1	1	1	+2	–	4
34	Sant Andreu	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.1	4
35	Antoniano	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
36	Real Murcia	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.4	4
37	Maracena	3	1	1	1	-3	–	4
38	CD Yuncos	3	1	1	1	-3	–	4
39	Deportivo Getxo	3	1	1	1	-6	–	4
40	Inter de Valdemoro	3	1	1	1	-9	–	4
41	Tenerife	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.1	3
42	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
43	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
44	Numancia	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
45	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
46	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
47	Ponferradina	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
48	Malaga	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
49	Extremadura 1924	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
50	Zaragoza	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
51	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
52	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
53	Real Madrid	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
54	SD Negreira	3	1	0	2	+0	–	3
55	Navalcarnero	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
56	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
57	Cartagena	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
58	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
59	Manises	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
60	Real Ávila	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
61	Cieza	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
62	Torrent	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
63	Sabadell	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
64	Portugalete	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
65	Textil Escudo	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
66	Los Garres	3	1	0	2	-4	–	3
67	Antequera	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
68	Ibiza	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
69	Atlético Astorga	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
70	Tarazona	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
71	UD Ourense	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
72	Europa Fc	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
73	Langreo	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
74	Quintanar del Rey	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
75	Betis Valladolid	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
76	Ebro	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
77	Universitario FC	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
78	Mirandes	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
79	Sporting Ceuta	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
80	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
81	Ferrol	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
82	Campanario	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
83	Pontevedra	2	0	1	1	-3	–	1
84	Alberite	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
85	Orihuela	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
86	Constància	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
87	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
88	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
89	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
90	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
91	Atlético Tordesillas	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
92	Atlètic Lleida	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
93	Castellon	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
94	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
95	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
96	Caudal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
97	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
98	Puente Genil	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
99	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
100	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
101	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
102	Ucam Murcia	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
103	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
104	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
105	Estepona	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
106	Tropezón	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
107	Mutilvera	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
108	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
109	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
110	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
111	La Unión Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
112	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
113	Azuaga	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
114	Lourdes	2	0	0	2	-3	–	0
115	Toledo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
116	Arenas Getxo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
117	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
118	San Fernando CD	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
119	Valle Egüés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
120	Roda	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
121	Sámano	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
122	SD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
123	RSD Alcalá	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
124	Atletico Calatayud	2	0	0	2	-6	–	0
125	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-6	–	0
126	Atlético Melilla	2	0	0	2	-10	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
2	Cultural Leonesa	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.9	6
3	Ourense CF	3	2	0	1	+2	–	6
4	Atlético Baleares	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.5	6
5	Guadalajara	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.0	6
6	Albacete	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
7	Sant Andreu	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.1	4
8	Antoniano	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
9	Real Murcia	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.4	4
10	Numancia	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
11	Puerto de Vega	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
12	Burgos	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
13	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
14	Extremadura 1924	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
15	SD Negreira	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
16	Sant Just	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
17	Betis	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
18	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Textil Escudo	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
20	Navalcarnero	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
21	CF Talavera	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
22	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
23	Real Ávila	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
24	La Coruna	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.6	3
25	Cieza	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
26	Palma del Rio	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
27	Torrent	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
28	Los Garres	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
29	Portugalete	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
30	CD Yuncos	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
31	Maracena	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
32	CD Sant Jordi	2	1	0	1	-4	–	3
33	Sociedad	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.9	1
34	Atlético Astorga	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
35	Alberite	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
36	Sporting Ceuta	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
37	UD Ourense	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
38	Langreo	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
39	Campanario	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
40	Quintanar del Rey	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
41	Ebro	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
42	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
43	Deportivo Getxo	2	0	1	1	-7	–	1
44	Inter de Valdemoro	2	0	1	1	-11	–	1
45	Orihuela	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
46	Constància	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
47	Leganes	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
48	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
49	Cartagena	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
50	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
51	Betis Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
52	Atlético Tordesillas	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
53	Atlètic Lleida	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
54	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
55	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
56	Tenerife	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
57	Caudal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
58	Puente Genil	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
59	Huesca	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
60	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
61	Granada	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.0	0
62	Universitario FC	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
63	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
64	Ucam Murcia	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
65	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
66	Estepona	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
67	Lourdes	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
68	Tropezón	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
69	Mutilvera	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
70	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
71	Sp Gijon	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
72	Sabadell	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
73	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
74	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
75	La Unión Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
76	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
77	Azuaga	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
78	Atletico Calatayud	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
79	Toledo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
80	Pontevedra	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
81	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
82	San Fernando CD	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
83	Valle Egüés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
84	Roda	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
85	Sámano	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
86	SD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
87	RSD Alcalá	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
88	Atlético Melilla	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0
89	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-6	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+9	-2.9	10
2	Betis	3	3	0	0	+11	-0.4	9
3	Valencia	3	3	0	0	+8	+1.0	9
4	Vallecano	4	3	0	1	+6	-1.4	9
5	Sociedad	3	3	0	0	+6	–	9
6	Elche	4	3	0	1	+5	-0.3	9
7	Getafe	3	2	0	1	+10	-0.3	6
8	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+10	–	6
9	La Coruna	2	2	0	0	+6	–	6
10	Eibar	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
11	Granada	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.1	6
12	Santander	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
13	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
14	Albacete	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
15	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
16	Sp Gijon	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
17	Mallorca	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.6	6
18	Ath Bilbao	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.9	6
19	Ath Madrid	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.1	6
20	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+2	–	6
21	Levante	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
22	Celta	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.1	5
23	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	+5	–	4
24	Palma del Rio	1	1	0	0	+5	–	3
25	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
26	CF Talavera	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
27	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
28	Sant Just	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
29	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
30	Inter de Valdemoro	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
31	Ponferradina	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
32	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
33	CD Sant Jordi	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
34	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
35	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
36	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
37	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
38	Malaga	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
39	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
40	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
41	Sabadell	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
42	Deportivo Getxo	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
43	Cartagena	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
44	Real Madrid	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
45	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
46	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
47	Antequera	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Ibiza	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	Mirandes	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	Puerto de Vega	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	Maracena	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Universitario FC	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Tarazona	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
54	Pontevedra	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
55	Europa Fc	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
56	Ferrol	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
57	Betis Valladolid	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
58	CD Yuncos	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
59	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
60	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	SD Negreira	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
63	Castellon	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
64	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
65	Lourdes	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
68	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
69	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
70	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
71	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
72	Los Garres	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
73	Manises	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
74	Sporting Ceuta	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
75	Campanario	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
76	Arenas Getxo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
77	Atletico Calatayud	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
78	Alberite	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
79	Textil Escudo	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
80	Atlético Melilla	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.