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La Liga

Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera

Osasuna

S U T T U

0–2

Full-time

Ath Madrid

U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Osasuna Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 47%

33%

60%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

50%

80%

Both score Ø 45%

50%

40%

Average goals

2,5

3,6

Scored

1,2

2,6

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,94 xG 1,44

54% Possession 46%

13 Shots 4

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

2 Offside 5

14 Free kicks against 4

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Osasuna 13. · Ath Madrid 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	7	6	1	0	+10	+3.6	19
2	Real Madrid	7	6	0	1	+7	+4.9	18
3	Barcelona	7	5	2	0	+10	+8.4	17
4	Ath Bilbao	7	4	2	1	+7	+5.0	14
5	Sociedad	7	3	3	1	+3	+1.0	12
6	Vallecano	7	3	2	2	-2	+0.2	11
7	Ath Madrid	5	3	1	1	+8	+3.2	10
8	Valencia	7	3	1	3	+2	+0.7	10
9	Cadiz	7	2	3	2	-2	-2.7	9
10	Betis	7	2	3	2	-5	-3.1	9
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-3	-3.0	8
12	Sevilla	6	2	1	3	+2	-1.0	7
13	Osasuna	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.7	7
14	Villarreal	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.0	7
15	Alaves	7	2	1	4	-4	-0.6	7
16	Mallorca	7	1	3	3	-3	-3.0	6
17	Celta	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.8	5
18	Las Palmas	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.9	5
19	Granada	7	1	1	5	-8	-6.0	4
20	Almeria	7	0	2	5	-10	+0.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.0	9
2	Girona	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.1	9
3	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+4	+3.8	9
4	Sociedad	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.5	8
5	Cadiz	4	2	2	0	+3	+3.8	8
6	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.9	7
7	Getafe	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.0	7
8	Ath Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.8	6
9	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	+3	+0.8	6
10	Valencia	4	2	0	2	+2	+2.8	6
11	Alaves	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.2	6
12	Betis	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.6	5
13	Las Palmas	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.2	5
14	Granada	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.4	4
15	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	-5	-1.4	4
16	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-2	-2.2	3
17	Mallorca	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.9	2
18	Osasuna	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.9	1
19	Celta	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.7	1
20	Almeria	4	0	1	3	-5	+2.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	4	3	1	0	+4	+1.5	10
2	Real Madrid	4	3	0	1	+3	+1.0	9
3	Barcelona	4	2	2	0	+2	+4.5	8
4	Ath Bilbao	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.1	7
5	Vallecano	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
6	Osasuna	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.2	6
7	Ath Madrid	3	1	1	1	+4	+1.5	4
8	Celta	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.1	4
9	Valencia	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.0	4
10	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.5	4
11	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.2	4
12	Mallorca	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.1	4
13	Betis	4	1	1	2	-6	-4.8	4
14	Sevilla	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.9	1
15	Alaves	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.8	1
16	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.0	1
17	Almeria	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.2	1
18	Cadiz	3	0	1	2	-5	-6.5	1
19	Granada	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.6	0
20	Las Palmas	4	0	0	4	-5	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.